Bubble Watch 3/15/24

[stever20]

33 Colorado St vs 23 New Mexico Q1 midnight
34 Dayton season over
35 Florida Atlantic vs 79 North Texas Q2 7pm-won 77-71
36 TCU season over
37 Mississippi St Fri vs 5 Tennessee Q1 1pm-won 73-56
38 Oklahoma season over
39 Michigan St Fri vs 3 Purdue Q1 noon-lost 62-67
40 Texas A&M Fri vs 18 Kentucky Q1 7pm-won 97-87
------first four--------
41 Virginia Fri vs 69 NC State Q2 930pm-lost 65-73
42 St John's Fri vs 2 UConn Q1 530pm-lost 90-95
43 Colorado vs 43 Washington St Q1 1030pm-won 58-52
44 New Mexico vs 31 Colorado St Q1 Midnight
-------cutline----------
69 Pittsburgh Fri vs 7 North Carolina Q1 7pm-lost 65-72
70 Providence Fri vs 13 Marquette Q1 8pm-lost 68-79
71 Seton Hall season over
72 Indiana St season over
73 Ohio St Fri vs 16 Illinois Q1 630pm-lost 74-77
74 Kansas St season over
75 Villanova season over
76 Wake Forest season over
77 NC State Fri vs 50 Virginia Q1 930pm-won 73-65
78 Iowa season over

[kayako]

Brutal drop for Seton Hall, but not surprised with its metrics anchor.

[stever20]

Brutal drop for Seton Hall, but not surprised with its metrics anchor.

yeah. OOC play coming back to bite them.

And even if they were 2-3 spots higher- teams that they would pass now would have chances to pass them tonight for sure.

Not to mention we have legit bid theives in Ohio St, NC State, and Oregon.

[stever20]

so we focus on the bubble. But lets talk about Creighton with the loss last night.

Right now have them at #8. The problem is 9/10 are Baylor and Iowa St. And of course- they play each other tonight. Will that be enough to pass Creighton for the last 2 seed?

[kayako]

One last thing on Seton Hall, while I trust bracketville more than any other, a bunch of other bracketologists still have them in. Overall it looks like there's a bit less consensus around the cutoff line than some of the years past this late in the process. I still think Hall has a shot, but it needs a ton of games to go their way today. If I had to bet, I think the fact that Hall has sucked away from home all season and getting blown out again yesterday was one thing they couldn't afford to do. We'll see, but it could potentially benefit Providence.

[kayako]

Right now have them at #8. The problem is 9/10 are Baylor and Iowa St. And of course- they play each other tonight. Will that be enough to pass Creighton for the last 2 seed?

I think ISU/Baylor and Kentucky ends up jumping Creighton and Marquette.

[stever20]

One last thing on Seton Hall, while I trust bracketville more than any other, a bunch of other bracketologists still have them in. Overall it looks like there's a bit less consensus around the cutoff line than some of the years past this late in the process. I still think Hall has a shot, but it needs a ton of games to go their way today. If I had to bet, I think the fact that Hall has sucked away from home all season and getting blown out again yesterday was one thing they couldn't afford to do. We'll see, but it could potentially benefit Providence.

I agree with you on the less consensus than normal. Of course, we don't have yesterday baked in yet either.

[adoraz]

Bracketville is ranked #77 / 174 on Bracket Matrix so they're slightly above average. The general consensus should have the Johnnies as one of the last couple Bye seeds once BM updates which hopefully will be more accurate.

[stever20]

Bracketville is ranked #77 / 174 on Bracket Matrix so they're slightly above average. The general consensus should have the Johnnies as one of the last couple Bye seeds once BM updates which hopefully will be more accurate.

Lunardi has it as:
last 4 byes:
Mich St
Miss St
Oklahoma
St John's

last 4 in:
Colorado
Seton Hall
Virginia
Texas A&M

First out:
New Mexico
Indiana St
Pittsburgh
Providence
Kansas St
Wake Forest
Ohio St
Villanova

[adoraz]

Bracketville is ranked #77 / 174 on Bracket Matrix so they're slightly above average. The general consensus should have the Johnnies as one of the last couple Bye seeds once BM updates which hopefully will be more accurate.

Lunardi has it as:
last 4 byes:
Mich St
Miss St
Oklahoma
St John's

last 4 in:
Colorado
Seton Hall
Virginia
Texas A&M

First out:
New Mexico
Indiana St
Pittsburgh
Providence
Kansas St
Wake Forest
Ohio St
Villanova

Yeah generally BM has had us a spot or two ahead of Lunardi, fueled by more metrics driven brackets like Fox's. Hopefully the Committee will highly value our NET.