Bubble Watch 3/9/24

[stever20]

Nice that Johnnies fans can watch the bubble knowing we have a real shot this time. Do need to win the Hall game otherwise we'll be sweating on Selection Sunday.

I can imagine how you and other Johnnies fans were watching that game yesterday. Probably like ok, when is the shoe gonna fall on us.

One thing I should note- the bracketology that I'm showing has Richmond already in as a A10 bid thief and also USF as well for the AAC. So it's a pretty good worst case scenario IMO.

[adoraz]

Nice that Johnnies fans can watch the bubble knowing we have a real shot this time. Do need to win the Hall game otherwise we'll be sweating on Selection Sunday.

I can imagine how you and other Johnnies fans were watching that game yesterday. Probably like ok, when is the shoe gonna fall on us.

One thing I should note- the bracketology that I'm showing has Richmond already in as a A10 bid thief and also USF as well for the AAC. So it's a pretty good worst case scenario IMO.

Yeah I've been following on Bracket Matrix and we're second to last team in, but they also have Richmond and USF in so could be better. I'm not really expecting many if any bid thieves this year.

I couldn't really follow the bubble until we beat Georgetown, just our own resume, but I think even if we lose to Seton Hall we'd still at least have a shot on Selection Sunday. Really want to win that, though.

[Hall2012]

A win over St. John's would likely raise SHU's seed but I have a hard time seeing a loss really knock them out. They'd still have the better head to head resume and SJU getting in would actually improve SHU's resume by giving them 2 more wins against the field.

I might sweat a bit on selection Sunday with a loss but overall won't think it would be the worst thing because a 10/11 seed would be preferable to a 9 anyway.

[stever20]

so looking at Big 12 tourney- Oklahoma and TCU play each other 2nd rd. Loser gonna be in a lot of trouble.

[admin]

so looking at Big 12 tourney- Oklahoma and TCU play each other 2nd rd. Loser gonna be in a lot of trouble.

It still bothers me that TCU got a win over Georgetown when their buzzer beater 3 counted even though the shooter was out of bounds.

[stever20]

so looking at Big 12 tourney- Oklahoma and TCU play each other 2nd rd. Loser gonna be in a lot of trouble.

It still bothers me that TCU got a win over Georgetown when their buzzer beater 3 counted even though the shooter was out of bounds.

so true. TCU would be in deep trouble right now w/o that.

[billyjack]

so looking at Big 12 tourney- Oklahoma and TCU play each other 2nd rd. Loser gonna be in a lot of trouble.

It still bothers me that TCU got a win over Georgetown when their buzzer beater 3 counted even though the shooter was out of bounds.

so true. TCU would be in deep trouble right now w/o that.

Let me tell you about this idea i have for a 96 team NCAA Tournament... lol...

[kayako]

I think Seton Hall is pretty darn close to a lock win or lose. Got the help they needed.
I think Providence can get in quite possibly with only a Hoyas win.
I think St John's needs 1 win, and Nova needs 2 wins.

If Nova and Providence both only win 1 more, I know you value number of wins, but if it comes to both being last in/1st out territory, in no universe would Providence get picked over a team that swept them with vastly superior metrics.

[stever20]

I think Seton Hall is pretty darn close to a lock win or lose. Got the help they needed.
I think Providence can get in quite possibly with only a Hoyas win.
I think St John's needs 1 win, and Nova needs 2 wins.

If Nova and Providence both only win 1 more, I know you value number of wins, but if it comes to both being last in/1st out territory, in no universe would Providence get picked over a team that swept them with vastly superior metrics.

18-15 would be awfully tough to take. Don't think any 18-15 team has made the tourney in the last 15+ years(except maybe 2021 with that weird year).

And oh, lets look at the results based metrics which are what gets teams in more realistically-
PC KPI 70 SOR 49
Nova KPI 63 SOR 60

Not much difference there. To get in at 18-15 you have to be pretty incredible otherwise. Just don't think Nova is that.

[stever20]

Lunardi saying that if Indiana St were to lose to Drake, they would be in his field at large. Would not be the case with Drake.