Big East into NCAA tournament odds

[Omaha1]

As seen on Twitter:

Big East Odds to Make NCAA Tournament (via TeamRankings)

UConn- 100%
Marquette- 100%
Creighton- 100%
Villanova- 78%
Seton Hall- 74%
Providence- 71%
Butler- 40%
St John's- 29%
Xavier- 21%
Georgetown- 0%
DePaul- 0%

[stever20]

As seen on Twitter:

Big East Odds to Make NCAA Tournament (via TeamRankings)

UConn- 100%
Marquette- 100%
Creighton- 100%
Villanova- 78%
Seton Hall- 74%
Providence- 71%
Butler- 40%
St John's- 29%
Xavier- 21%
Georgetown- 0%
DePaul- 0%

Nova seems too high on that. Need 3 more wins- with 2 of the final 5 games @ UConn and home with Creighton. Lose those 2 and have to beat both Providence and Seton Hall on the road.

Xavier at 21%? That seems rather out there.

Providence and Seton Hall on the other hand seem way too low.

[Vill]

This is going to be a nail biter selection Sunday for some Big East teams. What odds do we give each team of making the Dan dance?

Here’s my quick synopsis:

100% UConn, Marquette, Creighton
65% Butler
50% Seton Hall
40% Providence
35% Villanova
25% St John’s
10% Xavier
0% DePaul, Georgetown

Butler has sure gone in the tank since this started. BE probably gets 5 bids, but 3 isn't out of the question.

[stever20]

This is going to be a nail biter selection Sunday for some Big East teams. What odds do we give each team of making the Dan dance?

Here’s my quick synopsis:

100% UConn, Marquette, Creighton
65% Butler
50% Seton Hall
40% Providence
35% Villanova
25% St John’s
10% Xavier
0% DePaul, Georgetown

Butler has sure gone in the tank since this started. BE probably gets 5 bids, but 3 isn't out of the question.

I think 4 is the absolue minimum now. why?
Seton Hall and Providence need 1 more win. Both play Villanova. So either SH or Providence- at least 1 wins, or Nova gets 2 wins and with win vs Georgetown- they get in.

[Omaha1]

What odds do we give each team of making the Dan dance?

Here’s my quick synopsis:

100% UConn, Marquette, Creighton
65% Butler
50% Seton Hall
40% Providence
35% Villanova
25% St John’s
10% Xavier
0% DePaul, Georgetown

100% UConn, Marquette, Creighton
50% Seton Hall
45% Providence
40% St John’s, Villanova
10% Butler
0% Xavier, DePaul, Georgetown

[kayako]

I think 4 is the absolue minimum now. why?
Seton Hall and Providence need 1 more win. Both play Villanova. So either SH or Providence- at least 1 wins, or Nova gets 2 wins and with win vs Georgetown- they get in.

4-5 is probably what we'll get, but I wouldn't totally count out 3. Just looking at the last at-large bids, Gonzaga is probably a lock, MWC teams aren't falling below the cutline, and American & PAC12 could steal bids.

But the winner of 4/5 matchup in the BE tournament probably is safe, while 6 & 7 most likely needs to beat Marquette or Creighton. Loser of 4/5 is probably out.

[stever20]

I think 4 is the absolue minimum now. why?
Seton Hall and Providence need 1 more win. Both play Villanova. So either SH or Providence- at least 1 wins, or Nova gets 2 wins and with win vs Georgetown- they get in.

4-5 is probably what we'll get, but I wouldn't totally count out 3. Just looking at the last at-large bids, Gonzaga is probably a lock, MWC teams aren't falling below the cutline, and American & PAC12 could steal bids.

well one thing right now in bracketville- they have USF as the auto bid and FAU at large. So that's already factored in there.

I don't think there's a scenario realistically where the conference gets only 3. I guess if Providence beats Nova, but loses to Georgetown and loses out, while Nova beats Seton Hall- that could possibly get 3.

[kayako]

well one thing right now in bracketville- they have USF as the auto bid and FAU at large. So that's already factored in there.

Ah, I missed that one. It could get hairy for FAU if they lose one of their next 2 games, so we'll see.

[kayako]

A factor that isn't always talked about is the selection committee bias. Now all P6 conferences are represented, but PAC12 rep is Oregon State AD who is serving his last term. Colorado is the school that pretty much ended PAC12's chances to survive, and Utah also ditched the conference for B12. MWC doesn't have a rep. Some things to think about....