Big East into NCAA tournament odds

[Omaha1]

This is going to be a nail biter selection Sunday for some Big East teams. What odds do we give each team of making the Dan dance?

Here’s my quick synopsis:

100% UConn, Marquette, Creighton
65% Butler
50% Seton Hall
40% Providence
35% Villanova
25% St John’s
10% Xavier
0% DePaul, Georgetown

[stever20]

For me-
UConn, Marquette, Creighton 100%
Butler 75%
Seton Hall 40%
Providence 35%
Villanova 25%
St John's 25%
Xavier 5%
DePaul, Georgetown 0%

I think despite these individual chances- I think 5 get in.

[hoops22]

Agree with Stever that five is the most likely number. One thing that would help in possibly getting six would be an early exit by a couple of UCONN/Creighton/Marquette in the BET, and then a couple of SH/StJ/Nova/ Providence making a deep run. If history is any guide, Johnnies will probably make a late season run to give the fan base some optimism they'll sneak in, before faltering badly at the end, all to maximize the disappointment for us.

[stever20]

Agree with Stever that five is the most likely number. One thing that would help in possibly getting six would be an early exit by a couple of UCONN/Creighton/Marquette in the BET, and then a couple of SH/StJ/Nova/ Providence making a deep run. If history is any guide, Johnnies will probably make a late season run to give the fan base some optimism they'll sneak in, before faltering badly at the end, all to maximize the disappointment for us.

Nova going to be just like Xavier I think that they're going to enter the BET at like 16-15 or 17-14 and would need to make the title game to have any shot. St John's has a perfect schedule for them- last 2 games are DePaul and Georgetown. Should be able to take care of that. So if they can do well in a 4 games in 10 days stretch- they have a real shot. I might be underestimating them honestly.

[Omaha1]

Feels like Creighton is in the crosshairs for everyone needing to add to their resume. All on the road for the Jays. Butler this week in Hinkle, at St John’s and then at Nova to end the season.

[stever20]

Feels like Creighton is in the crosshairs for everyone needing to add to their resume. All on the road for the Jays. Butler this week in Hinkle, at St John’s and then at Nova to end the season.

It's the question- which is better for the league- more teams in, or a higher seeded Creighton team who could do serious damage in the tourney?

[Demon22]

[Omaha1]

Nova drops to 0% if they don’t beat the Hoyas tonight, right?

[Redmen23]

Big East most likely gets 5 teams in this year. With the emergence of the Mountain West they are getting 6 teams in without question.

Big East has a shot at 6 teams and probably will because, well, it's the Big East and that carries some extra weight with it.

St. John's is in free fall mode. There is no way in hell they make the tourney and this is coming from a Johnnies fan. They would have to win their last 6 games to get in. Not happening. They'll end up probably at around 17-13, best case. They don't have 1 win against a top 25 team this season. Their record against Quad 1 teams is bad. They don't deserve to be in. Again the only way I think they deserve it is by rattling off 5 or 6 in a row to end the season. That is the only way.

[stever20]

Big East most likely gets 5 teams in this year. With the emergence of the Mountain West they are getting 6 teams in without question.

Big East has a shot at 6 teams and probably will because, well, it's the Big East and that carries some extra weight with it.

St. John's is in free fall mode. There is no way in hell they make the tourney and this is coming from a Johnnies fan. They would have to win their last 6 games to get in. Not happening. They'll end up probably at around 17-13, best case. They don't have 1 win against a top 25 team this season. Their record against Quad 1 teams is bad. They don't deserve to be in. Again the only way I think they deserve it is by rattling off 5 or 6 in a row to end the season. That is the only way.

Why I don't think 6 has a real shot is the schedule. Lots of head to head games meaning someone has to lose.

SH 16-9
@ Creighton, UConn
@ SJ, Butler, Nova
DePaul

Butler: 16-9
Creighton
@ Nova, @ SH, SJ, Xavier
@ DePaul

Providence: 16-9
@ Marq, UConn
@ X, Nova
DePaul, Georgetown

SJ 14-11:
Creighton
SH, @ Butler
@ Georgetown, @ DePaul, Georgetown

Nova: 14-11
@ UConn, Creighton
Butler, @ Providence, @ Seton Hall
Georgetown

Nova and St John's could easily be spoilers. Especially Nova of course. With little chance to make the tourney themselves.