Bubble/Tournament Watch 3/1/23

[Omaha1]

Nova isn't that far from the cut line. If they advance into the BET semi's or finals, you wonder if that would be enough? The committee would certainly have to acknowledge the level of play at full strength compared to what happened early in the year.

of course to even do that if they got to the SF they'd need a win vs UConn on Saturday, and then a win against Providence on Thursday most likely in the 3/6 game. That would get Nova to 19-15. Would have 4 Q1 wins. Might need a win in the SF against Xavier to really seal things- but hope it's not a situation like last year with Texas A&M. Recent committees have not really counted the conference tournaments that much in their deliberations.

Nova - Georgetown is the 6-11 game.

[stever20]

Nova isn't that far from the cut line. If they advance into the BET semi's or finals, you wonder if that would be enough? The committee would certainly have to acknowledge the level of play at full strength compared to what happened early in the year.

of course to even do that if they got to the SF they'd need a win vs UConn on Saturday, and then a win against Providence on Thursday most likely in the 3/6 game. That would get Nova to 19-15. Would have 4 Q1 wins. Might need a win in the SF against Xavier to really seal things- but hope it's not a situation like last year with Texas A&M. Recent committees have not really counted the conference tournaments that much in their deliberations.

Nova - Georgetown is the 6-11 game.

Right. That would get Nova with a win to 18-14. Nova would need the win the next day against Providence to have any chance at all realistically. And might need more.

[kayako]

VCU just won the A10 outright and they're behind Oral Roberts. yikes one bid conference

[stever20]

VCU just won the A10 outright and they're behind Oral Roberts. yikes one bid conference

not going to be fun for a 5 seed at all. The 12 line could be absolutely loaded. A couple of conferences where the 2nd place team is actually better than the 1st place team so maybe not as much of a variance as you'd normally see.

[stever20]

bad loss by Rutgers against Minnesota. Helps Providence out obviously.

[Omaha1]

Rutgers loses at Minnesota.

[hoops22]

If Nova beats UCONN on Saturday, I have a feeling they'll find a way to fight themselves into the tournament. Now that they're at full strength and with their back to the wall, it's gut check time. Should be a great game on Saturday.

[kayako]

ESPN's win probability for Rutgers is bonkers. Can't believe they lost a 10 point lead with 1:!5 remaining.

Oh, and it happened against Minnesota, a team literally worse than Georgetown.

[kayako]

VCU just won the A10 outright and they're behind Oral Roberts. yikes one bid conference

not going to be fun for a 5 seed at all. The 12 line could be absolutely loaded. A couple of conferences where the 2nd place team is actually better than the 1st place team so maybe not as much of a variance as you'd normally see.

Charleston, VCU, Iona, and Oral Roberts as a 12 seed group would get hyped by Seth Davis. 12 seeds are usually pretty good, though, and quality often spills into 13 seeds. Imagine, Villanova loses Saturday then wins the BET and get rewarded with a 12 seed.

[stever20]

VCU just won the A10 outright and they're behind Oral Roberts. yikes one bid conference

not going to be fun for a 5 seed at all. The 12 line could be absolutely loaded. A couple of conferences where the 2nd place team is actually better than the 1st place team so maybe not as much of a variance as you'd normally see.

Charleston, VCU, Iona, and Oral Roberts as a 12 seed group would get hyped by Seth Davis. 12 seeds are usually pretty good, though, and quality often spills into 13 seeds. Imagine, Villanova loses Saturday then wins the BET and get rewarded with a 12 seed.

Toledo and Southern Miss really good this year. Liberty if they can beat 1 seed Kennessaw St. This has the potential to be better than normal.