USC and UCLA to the Big Ten by 2024?

[billyjack]

There are so many moving parts and possible scenarios...

But what happens to the ACC's Grant of Rights if members leave? I mean, what happens to the remaining members?

If the SEC grabs Clemson and FSU and pays the penalties and exit fees... and the B1G grabs UNC, Virginia, Miami, and Georgia Tech and pays etc... those remaining 9 ACC members can't still be tied into the GOR's in the same way, can they?

[DeltaV]

Does anyone know the ACC bylaws to know what's required to dissolve the conference? I vaguely remember hearing that the Catholic 7 were only one vote short when we broke from the football schools, maybe hinging on if Temple was considered a full voting member or not? Either way, if it had gone that way we wouldn't have needed to pay out the AAC schools for the conference name, MSG contact.

I'm guessing they wouldn't get enough schools to do that though, if you're estimating there would still be 9 schools left behind.

[Django]

The ACC will most likely stay a complete league even if Clemson, GT, FSU, Miami, VT, Pitt and BC go to the P2 before 2035. You will have the conference run by tobacco road (already is) and they can raid the B12-AAACK with UCF, USF, ECU, WVU and Cincy.... or they will give up on Power League football dreams

The Carolina good ol boys are going to go through the same shit the C7 did. What goes around comes around

[gtmoBlue]

Timing is everything. The ACC may be on the problematic side of timing?

The B12 has had a year to reconfigure and with the problems of the PAC12, may further expand. The PAC12 is in shock but is doing the requisite post-trauma damage control drill, in order to mitigate the damages done. They will embark on a counter-assault to shore up the conference, and to stem the poaching by the B12. If unsuccessful, the PAC12 will die. Best potential solution I've read thus far would be a merger of the two conferences - taking the best 8 teams from each to form a new league.

The ACC's GoR is both a boon and a bust. The boon portion is that the GoR penalites are significant and a good deterent, thus far. However, the penalty will not deter any school that truly wants to bolt. We have seen previously, that when schools really want out - they get out. So the ACC GoR can be financed if FSU, Clemson, and others really want out to go to the SEC. Will the B1G seek UVA/UNC? When the top 4-5 teams leave...and the ACC will need that GoR money to ease the transition from P5 to also-ran status (as the AAC used C7 buyouts, etc. to ease its demise). Revenues will fall from $36Million down to potentially $15-18Million. That is the bust kicker.

With both the B12/PAC12 solving for the best way forward for football now, little will be left for the ACC to dicker with when their turn comes around. They can live with 9-11 schools remaining and/or add from AAC, CUSA, B12/PAC12 castoffs. No remaining ACC teams, B/PAC castoffs, or lesser conference add-ons move the football needle. Too little, too late. Miami, Pitt, VT, & S'cuse programs cannot maintain P5 level status for the conference. ND either maintains it's Indie status or leaves for greener pastures. The ACC's time in the sun as a P5 player will be over. Sayonara Tobacco Road.

We are left with the B1G, SEC, and possibly a B12/PAC12 Hybrid... the P2 & a half...at best.

I like how you guys 'add' teams to the leaving list. ? GT, BC, VT, Pitt, etc. Only Clemson-FSU-UNC-UVA, maybe Miami 'move the needle'. The rest are of no football consequence.
Billyjack - Once the big dogs leave there is no 'need' to continue a GoR for the remainder, what's done will be done. Unless the conference wants to protect GT from joining the CUSA or MWC, lol. The conference could keep it intact to
prevent hoops poachers (Big East) from stealing S'cuse and Duke. However, even in a reduced, non-P5 configuration, a football-centric ACC could still bring in $15 Million/year for its teams...far better than the 2025 BE at $7.5-$10 million. Syracuse would really, really want out to take the further financial hits to join the BE. IF ACC revenues fell closer to $10M/year or the conference implodes (PAC12...members scramble for new venues), then all bets are off and the schools scurry like rats off a sinking ship.

[Xudash]

Timing is everything. The ACC may be on the problematic side of timing?

The B12 has had a year to reconfigure and with the problems of the PAC12, may further expand. The PAC12 is in shock but is doing the requisite post-trauma damage control drill, in order to mitigate the damages done. They will embark on a counter-assault to shore up the conference, and to stem the poaching by the B12. If unsuccessful, the PAC12 will die. Best potential solution I've read thus far would be a merger of the two conferences - taking the best 8 teams from each to form a new league.

The ACC's GoR is both a boon and a bust. The boon portion is that the GoR penalites are significant and a good deterent, thus far. However, the penalty will not deter any school that truly wants to bolt. We have seen previously, that when schools really want out - they get out. So the ACC GoR can be financed if FSU, Clemson, and others really want out to go to the SEC. Will the B1G seek UVA/UNC? When the top 4-5 teams leave...and the ACC will need that GoR money to ease the transition from P5 to also-ran status (as the AAC used C7 buyouts, etc. to ease its demise). Revenues will fall from $36Million down to potentially $15-18Million. That is the bust kicker.

With both the B12/PAC12 solving for the best way forward for football now, little will be left for the ACC to dicker with when their turn comes around. They can live with 9-11 schools remaining and/or add from AAC, CUSA, B12/PAC12 castoffs. No remaining ACC teams, B/PAC castoffs, or lesser conference add-ons move the football needle. Too little, too late. Miami, Pitt, VT, & S'cuse programs cannot maintain P5 level status for the conference. ND either maintains it's Indie status or leaves for greener pastures. The ACC's time in the sun as a P5 player will be over. Sayonara Tobacco Road.

We are left with the B1G, SEC, and possibly a B12/PAC12 Hybrid... the P2 & a half...at best.

I like how you guys 'add' teams to the leaving list. ? GT, BC, VT, Pitt, etc. Only Clemson-FSU-UNC-UVA, maybe Miami 'move the needle'. The rest are of no football consequence.
Billyjack - Once the big dogs leave there is no 'need' to continue a GoR for the remainder, what's done will be done. Unless the conference wants to protect GT from joining the CUSA or MWC, lol. The conference could keep it intact to
prevent hoops poachers (Big East) from stealing S'cuse and Duke. However, even in a reduced, non-P5 configuration, a football-centric ACC could still bring in $15 Million/year for its teams...far better than the 2025 BE at $7.5-$10 million. Syracuse would really, really want out to take the further financial hits to join the BE. IF ACC revenues fell closer to $10M/year or the conference implodes (PAC12...members scramble for new venues), then all bets are off and the schools scurry like rats off a sinking ship.

Solid post, gtmo.

One possible point of clarification/ question about the bolded part: Were a Syracuse, as an example, to end up in a position of having to consider the BE for basketball + Olympic Sports and football as an independent, similar to UCONN, wouldn't the "opportunity" actually be $10 million from the BE for B+OS and then whatever they can scratch and claw out for their football rights as an independent? If some of the UCONN guys weren't so busy salivating over a 15th shot at the ACC or B1G just now (laugh track, please), perhaps they could chime in about this.

Isn't it true UCONN was able to keep its specific New England-centric media rights for women's basketball coming into the BE, as one example? Whatever UCONN is doing in terms of collecting money for its football media content now, that certainly isn't hitting the Big East's ledger.

I know we have a lot of moving parts and "what ifs" in play, but, for giggles, say they are faced with staying in a watered down ACC with a $15 million dollar per year deal versus coming to the Big East for $10 million and then sewing together $5 million worth of media deals for their football schedule. Assuming those two options are viable and acceptable to the Syracuse administration, would they "come home", too?

Here is the real rub: would the Syracuse administration even consider football viable at that point as it had been fielded by Syracuse up till then? A $20 million hit to revenue means some combination of department (football program) cuts, increased student fees or both. The writing already is very clear on the wall: Syracuse, the home of Jim Brown, is in a very poor competitive position at the highest level at this point, and it is only going to get worse.

[gtmoBlue]

Great observations Dash. Yes, those scenarios would work...if a S'cuse team really, really wanted to bail out.
The GoR having been squashed by the outgoing footballers. Yes losing $20 Mill in revenues are cause for a
reevaluation of their athletics position overall.

I don't know what UConn did for womens hoops, nor what they are currently doing for football. I suppose you are correct and
that another BE prospect team could do the same.

[Omaha1]

ESPN wants the ACC to stay as is, right? They’ve got them locked in at submarket rates for 10+ more years. I don’t see anyone there bolting considering the GOR.

[GoldenWarrior11]

It is wild to recognize, but the Boston College/Virginia Tech/Syracuse/Pittsburgh/West Virginia/Louisville defections were, in retrospect, short-term solutions to long-term problems that plagued the original Big East (1979-2013). None of those programs are power brands by themselves, and none were able/are able to move the need individually. While many thought that, by being "called-up to the ACC" were permanent promotions, solidifying themselves as part of the top-tier group, it really was just a temporary media rights boost until the next wave of realignment. There is no doubt in my mind that the Big Ten and the SEC aren't done adding; now, that could happen days from now, or years from now, but (at some point) schools like Notre Dame, North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State, and others, will recognize that they cannot afford to be left behind or left out. They will look to jump, and the Mega 2 will seek to add a limited number of these remaining programs to continue to add value and revenues.

So, how does this relate to the Big East? Well, firstly, it should once again be highlighted that the leadership and decision by C7 leadership to separate from football was the right move. Whether it was in 2016 (rumored Big 12 expansion), 2019 (UConn leaving AAC), 2021 (Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC) or 2022 (UCLA and USC to the Big Ten), the Big East is no longer in a reactionary and uncertain position of how and where to back-fill with teams in order to survive. There is no quantifiable cost that the Big East has solidified where it no longer has to worry about losing teams (UConn will continue to be an exception, and I'll touch on that below). Secondly, as FOX has determined with the Big Ten, conferences (no matter what athletics, academics or history say) do not need to be contiguous or regional. What this means for the Big East, especially with present negotiations ongoing and with a new TV deal around the corner, is that the possibility of a Gonzaga/Big East marriage is only stronger than before. It adds another program to the Big East, which means more content, a late night time slot and an elite basketball brand to elevate the league. What remains the biggest hurdle to me, however, is that UCLA and USC (as partners) are making the cross country sacrifice within the Big Ten together; for Gonzaga, there is no one that they would be paired with, as there are no additional valued brands that could move the needle on their own. However, if Gonzaga, getting a big increase in TV exposure and revenue, is willing to make that sacrifice, so should the Big East (as only a select number of programs within athletic departments would travel to Spokane annually).

Thirdly, there are many programs that are looking at relegation on the horizon. Outside of Notre Dame, North Carolina, Clemson and Florida State, there are very few guaranteed programs that have a spot in the Big Ten or SEC. Depending on how many, or how few, programs are elevated, it will impact the Big East, positively or negatively, in this regard: there will either be a small number of schools, that have been left behind, that will choose to keep the values of their basketball programs high by joining the Big East (with a TBD for their respective football programs); OR, there will be enough left-behind schools to make a create a new association of Eastern football schools that will inevitably pull UConn away. For example, if just Syracuse, Pittsburgh and Boston College are left out (and they surely will, as their athletic brands, respectively, do not move the need enough financially to move the payouts), then it is easy for them to come back to the Big East and become non-football members once again. However, if those schools, in addition to Duke, Wake Forest, Louisville, Miami (and Temple, Cincinnati, UCF, West Virginia) are all left out, then in order to make a more complete league, they will add UConn to round itself out (especially without any football powers blocking the addition of UConn).

Many might disagree, and I hope I am wrong, but I do not foresee UConn remaining in the Big East after the ripple effects of the impending realignment moves are made. What we will probably see is two leagues (Big East and ACC) very much look like the non-football schools and football schools of the Big East (2003-2012) operating as separate entities, with perhaps a conference challenge annually and many OOC opportunities for non-football sports. If we move back down to ten, and no other football-playing schools are worthy of being added as non-football members, then it's time to look to the A10 for a backfill or two.

Just my two cents.

[adoraz]

I don't doubt that UConn would likely accept an ACC invitation even if they lose some of their top brands, that makes sense for football, but I am very skeptical as to whether that invitation would ever come. Right now ACC teams are being paid $32 million, and the big majority of that of course comes from football. Assuming the ACC loses their top football brands, why would they want to replace Clemson with a terrible football team that doesn't bring in revenue?

I guess there are 2 questions here:
1. Is UConn worth $32 million? If not, they would drive down average payouts during a time when the ACC's #1 priority would be salvaging as much TV money as possible.
2. Even if they are worth that much (I don't think they are), haven't we seen from Big XII expansion that there are much more valuable brands? If half of the AAC apparently was more valuable than UConn, then I find it hard to believe the ACC couldn't do any better than them.

If the ACC gets raided then I think it's much more likely they'd look west and potentially merge with the Pac 12 and a few other big football brands to survive. Expanding nationally is the trend for all big conferences now as it opens up more time slots. Aligning with other Power 5 teams seems like the best bet for survival... not taking another basketball school with really bad football.

[gtmoBlue]

good continuing discussions.

IMHO Notre Dame is NOT IN PLAY this round. The golden domers Footballers decide to remain indy for now. There are 4-7 ACC schools in play and up to 8 PAC 12 schools in play.

B1G may look to add 2 more PAC 12 schools and the B12 is also looking at 4-6 Pac schools. The PAC12 is toast. The PAC made $19-20M/ in 2021 per school...Toast. If schools also bolt to the Big12, they will be lucky to see $10M in their upcoming negotiations. There will be nothing left for the ACC to merge with.

The ACC schools are Clemson, FSU, Miami, VT, NCST (real Longshot) poss to the SEC and UNC, UVA to the B1G. Yes, I know...in the past the B1G had glanced at GT, but that was ages ago.

If the B1G holds at 18, the ACC can still survive at 10-12 schools and Indy ND. If the B1G goes to 20 schools along with the SEC raid...it's over for the ACC. ACC made $32 M/Yr. When the top 4-6 footballers leave, their current contract gets reduced to peanuts - $10-12M/year? If both P2's go to a 20 team config. Pac loses 4 (USC-UCLA-Stanford-Wash) to the B1G, plus whatever the B12 takes. The ACC loses 6 (UNC-UVA to B1G)(Clem-FSU-NCSt-VT to SEC). That leaves the ACC with 8 and ND. UConn can bail to a gutted ACC if they like. With the football side gutted, those who can will bail out...Notre Dame, S'cuse, and Duke will head to the Big East for hoops/other sports. As for the rest of the ACC - who cares.

Zags take us to 12. ND, S'cuse, Duke take us 15. Add another WC (Dons, Gaels, Denver) team to make 16. Done.

The leftovers from both conferences will merge with more midmajors (AAC/CUSA for the ACC - MWC for the PAC12)...or die.