Bracketology Updates - 2021-22

[stever20]

Lunardi from today-
Villanova 3
Xavier 5
Providence 6
Seton Hall 7
UConn 7
Marquette 10
Creighon 11(2nd to last team with bye)

[adoraz]

So does everyone agree that 5 is the floor this year, with 6/7 being the most likely outcome? Night and day vs last year assuming we double our at-large bids. Also, even if it ends up being only 5 then all of them should be good seeds.

[stever20]

So does everyone agree that 5 is the floor this year, with 6/7 being the most likely outcome? Night and day vs last year assuming we double our at-large bids. Also, even if it ends up being only 5 then all of them should be good seeds.

I just do not see at all even going back to my old self if you will any remote shot of getting only 4 bids.

I'd say right now.....
6 bids 50%
7 bids 25%
5 bids 23%
8 bids 2%

[adoraz]

So does everyone agree that 5 is the floor this year, with 6/7 being the most likely outcome? Night and day vs last year assuming we double our at-large bids. Also, even if it ends up being only 5 then all of them should be good seeds.

I just do not see at all even going back to my old self if you will any remote shot of getting only 4 bids.

I'd say right now.....
6 bids 50%
7 bids 25%
5 bids 23%
8 bids 2%

Yeah those percentages seem pretty accurate. 4 bids would have to be less than 1% I'd think.

[Hall2012]

So does everyone agree that 5 is the floor this year, with 6/7 being the most likely outcome? Night and day vs last year assuming we double our at-large bids. Also, even if it ends up being only 5 then all of them should be good seeds.

I just do not see at all even going back to my old self if you will any remote shot of getting only 4 bids.

I'd say right now.....
6 bids 50%
7 bids 25%
5 bids 23%
8 bids 2%

Yeah those percentages seem pretty accurate. 4 bids would have to be less than 1% I'd think.

I agree with Stever, I can't see the odds of 4 bids being anything other than absolute 0. Even if someone who looks safe (I'll keep being negative and say Seton Hall for instance) tanks out, there's no real way for them to do that without lifting someone else up to replace them. If the Johnnies sweep the upcoming home and home with SHU, the Pirates are in trouble but now the Johnnies are right there in good shape for a bid themselves. If nothing else, it creates 2 more meaningful opportunities for Marquette and Creighton. The position the league is in right now is that almost every disappointing loss for one team is a quality win for the other.

[stever20]

So does everyone agree that 5 is the floor this year, with 6/7 being the most likely outcome? Night and day vs last year assuming we double our at-large bids. Also, even if it ends up being only 5 then all of them should be good seeds.

I just do not see at all even going back to my old self if you will any remote shot of getting only 4 bids.

I'd say right now.....
6 bids 50%
7 bids 25%
5 bids 23%
8 bids 2%

Yeah those percentages seem pretty accurate. 4 bids would have to be less than 1% I'd think.

I just don't see how. It would take all of Seton Hall or UConn, Marquette, and Creighton to crater- but not enough to where DePaul or St John's could get in.

[adoraz]

By less than 1% I meant anywhere from 0.0000001% to 0.9%, but I guess it's possible for it to literally be 0%. One reason I'm hesitant to say that is because last year we started BE play with 5/6 likely at-large teams and of course finished with 3. Also, during BE play Marquette beat up on UNC for instance and I don't think the league had any OOC losses in January/February to lower our overall NET ranking. We still don't know exactly how NET works and it's possible we could see something similar happen this year. That said, overall last year I think we just got really unlucky with a bunch of NIT teams and 0 teams on the right side of the bubble. I definitely agree it's extremely unlikely we get 4, but not sure it's 0%. If you asked me this time last year what the odds of getting 3 at-large teams were I would've thought pretty low (in fact, we probably were talking about that exact scenario last year but I don't want to dig it up).

[Hall2012]

I think the difference is that last year the majority of our 5-6 were in the bubble range that this point while this year there's a bit more margin for error without falling out completely. The strong OOC performances (that we didn't have the opportunity for last year) bought us a significant amount of breathing room.

[adoraz]

I think the difference is that last year the majority of our 5-6 were in the bubble range that this point while this year there's a bit more margin for error without falling out completely. The strong OOC performances (that we didn't have the opportunity for last year) bought us a significant amount of breathing room.

Yeah that's fair and I get there's a difference, though I do remember some brackets with 7 or so Big East teams in January 2021. We were still top 4 (or 5?) in NET I think, vs top 3 or 4 this year. It's not a huge, huge difference (such as #1 vs #6).

It doesn't really matter though if the odds (of 4 teams getting bids) are 0 or 1 in 10,000, I agree that 5+ teams get bids.

[stever20]

DeCourcey-
3 Villanova
4 Providence
6 Xavier
6 UConn
7 Creighton
8 Seton Hall
10 Marquette