Conference Realignment: What Next?

[GoldenWarrior11]

Hey guys, popping in to throw gasoline on the fire. Big 12 is rumored to be taking BYU, Cincy, Houston and UCF on Friday. With the imminent implosion of the AAC, should the BE pick the leftovers to expand?

I look forward to your well reasoned discussion. Also, can we finally put to bed expanding with Dayton, VCU and St. Louis? If we don't take AAC teams, we're damn sure not going to pick up anyone else.

No remaining members in the American are a fit for the Big East. The big dog, Memphis, will not have a need (or interest) in pursuing the UConn path (FBS Independent, BE Olympic Sports). Memphis, as are programs like USF, SMU and Boise State, are "on-deck" for another Big 12 expansion invitation, especially planning on playing with fourteen members until Texas and Oklahoma depart for the SEC. Even without a Big East affiliation, Memphis has survived in the American, C-USA, the Great Midwest, the Metro, the MVC and as an Independent. As good as their basketball program is and can be, their academics and Southern footprint are not a fit for the Big East.

Temple will never be given a look as long as Villanova is in the Big East. Just is what it is. Programs like ECU, Tulane and USF are each a non-starter. Wichita State, despite being a basketball-first school with great resources, facilities and recent high-level success, is very much a new kid on the block at the high levels of college basketball. Take away Marshall's run there, and they are very much a mid-major. In addition, their academics would be dead-last in the Big East. Very confident that the BE Presidents would never approve of Wichita State entering the Big East.

SMU, despite its resources and recent success in men's basketball, has always been a football-first athletic program. Same goes for Tulsa. Both are way outside the footprint and should never be considered.

[Violet Ram]

Also, taking Butler as an example, Butler was in the Horizon and A10 with the same or worse contacts than the current A10 contract, but their conference's low media payout didn't define their value to the Big East.

I think part of why VCU wasn't in the original cut was two-fold. First, we were coming from the CAA, which was several ladders down from the Big East. Second, we would have been the only public school. With UConn now in the fold, I think the calculus may be a bit different.

2021 is much, much different than 2012.

Butler had just come off back-to-back national title games and had a marquee coach with historic facilities in a basketball-rich area. Not to mention the NCAA headquarters is 6 miles away. Would BU fit the criteria today? maybe not. At the time, Xavier and Butler were the obvious candidates for #8 and #9. It was #10 that was the final decision and it went, deservingly, to Creighton with it's institutional fit and geographic expansion - TV markets were very much more important just 10 years ago (see Rutgers).

What separates Butler and Creighton from VCU, St. Louis, and Dayton today? Why are they considered more valuable today? Simple - they now have nearly 10 years of "major conference" status. To many casual sports fans, VCU is more like George Mason than Butler.

I would object to saying that VCU is closer to Mason than Butler since anyone under the age of 30 likely doesn't know a thing about Mason, but I digress. I'm not questioning the inclusion of Butler or Creighton. I do think being in a named conference adds good will to its teams, but that good will fades if you consistently fail to produce. If Butler and other Big East teams have underperformed, do you think that Fox is going to be eager to continue to pay 4 million+ a year for the Big East? Villanova is probably a saving grace.

That said, last time this came up I posted that VCU currently receives $2 million/year for its media rights. From what I saw then, Georgetown had a similar contract with incentives for up to $2.5 million/year based on performance (with a $2 million ceiling).

I think you should have picked another school to compare with VCU's financial upside. Personally I'd find comparisons between the A10 trio + WSU more interesting, because it's guaranteed that their financial commitment & worth will only go up if they end up in the BE. Georgetown's BET run was the biggest story in college basketball that week. No outside program is worth more than a reinvigorated Georgetown to this conference, not even Gonzaga.

Are you talking about the Big East conference tournament? If so, I can tell you that I didn't hear much about Georgetown that week, and I live in DC. I didn't hear much about VCU in casual settings either to be fair. In general it was a down year for enthusiasm. Also, the Big East tournament final with Georgetown had 100k (or 10%) less viewers than the A10 tournament game, and was the worst performing Big East tournament final since 2015.

[Xudash]

Violet Ram - - You strike me as being a reasoned and reasonable poster. You clearly try to get to and utilize relevant data to support your positions.

I believe you also layout a strong case for VCU, at least in terms of VCU possibly competing with SLU or Dayton for an invitation to the Big East, assuming the league does expand in the future. The Big East has now set a precedent for public schools with UCONN, albeit a unique one, insofar as UCONN was more about welcoming back a school that had extensive history with the conference (brand). Nonetheless, that barrier has been breached.

VCU's size, location, emphasis on and investment in its program, and its track record in basketball represent clear strengths when it comes to its case. What I don't know is whether or not Georgetown, in particular, would take issue with VCU's inclusion based on its proximity to D.C. That is for Georgetown's administration to decide.

Relative to the other two schools that VCU would compete against for a slot, its biggest competition probably is St. Louis, though St. Louis seems to have lacked on a performance basis behind both VCU and Dayton. Still, there is no question that the school would make the cut if conditions ever warranted the Big East extending an invitation to a mid-major. It provides St. Louis as a market, and it provides some proximity to Creighton, etc.

Importantly, it does not infringe upon any existing member's area. Dayton is in the worse shape possible for expansion in that regard. It has a loyal following, but it's in Dayton, which doesn't add anything in its own right. And times have changed since the days of Xavier helping UD get into the A10. It's fair to say that Villanova would not want Temple or St. Joe's in the Big East. I suspect Creighton would become physically ill if an invitation were extended to Wichita State. DePaul could not possibly want an invitation going out to Loyola. Same here when it comes to Dayton's chances with Xavier sitting less than 50 miles down the road - and, for that matter, with Butler rather close by - in what already is a basketball intensive area for major programs, let alone Dayton and MAC schools.

Otherwise, Fox has been a fantastic media partner for the Big East. The Madison Square Garden relationship is very strong, very important and very valued. Believe me, there is nothing like the BET conference tournament anywhere, and it will only get crazier with UCONN in the mix. Leadership of the Big East is truly top shelf.

All that is to suggest that the right moves will be made the next time moves are to be made. We have discussed off and on what the next media agreement may bring for the 11-member schools. It is generally believed that the per school amount is going up from the roughly $4.1 million per school per year figure now. I don't believe it would surprise anyone here if that per school amount makes its way north of $7 million per year. Thank you Nova. Thank you for returning, UCONN. Thank you overall conference for performing well in annual conference rankings and in racking up NCAAT Units.

It may be fair and reasonable to ask about the relative differences in program values from one program to the next, but it seems that only upward pressure will now be applied to any non-Big East program that wants to become a Big East member, assuming the next media agreement lands as described above. Fox is about monetizing a collective group of schools in a way that makes sense for Fox and the schools comprising the conference. As has been noted by others, neither Fox or the Big East leadership has any desire to dilute per school cash flows.

The last thing I'll add here is just a little perspective on the difference between the Big East and the A10. My opinion, of course, but as a fan of a school that has now spent a lot of time in both conferences. There simply is no comparison, especially with the A10 in its current state. You can't imagine the grind of going through this conference. There are no nights off, not even against DePaul, as an example. Show up in Omaha or Milwaukee and be welcomed by over 17,000 fans in beautiful facilities. Show up at the Pavillion on the Mainline and see how that works out for you. The Pru, when its rocking, or the Dunkin Donuts Center are simply tough places to play. Now we have St. Johns beginning to hit its stride again. UCONN's recruiting is flourishing now that it has come back to the BE. It's nuts across the board. But all that is reflected in the number of bids this conference tends to rack up.

That brings us back to where we stand presently: in a strong position as a conference with a solid existing configuration of 11 schools, with the round robin being of value at this time, and with an expectation for a material increase in our media agreement in the not too distant future. I'm not sure that needs messed with, unless something rather striking happens.

[Violet Ram]

Violet Ram - - You strike me as being a reasoned and reasonable poster. You clearly try to get to and utilize relevant data to support your positions.

I believe you also layout a strong case for VCU, at least in terms of VCU possibly competing with SLU or Dayton for an invitation to the Big East, assuming the league does expand in the future. The Big East has now set a precedent for public schools with UCONN, albeit a unique one, insofar as UCONN was more about welcoming back a school that had extensive history with the conference (brand). Nonetheless, that barrier has been breached.

VCU's size, location, emphasis on and investment in its program, and its track record in basketball represent clear strengths when it comes to its case. What I don't know is whether or not Georgetown, in particular, would take issue with VCU's inclusion based on its proximity to D.C. That is for Georgetown's administration to decide.

Relative to the other two schools that VCU would compete against for a slot, its biggest competition probably is St. Louis, though St. Louis seems to have lacked on a performance basis behind both VCU and Dayton. Still, there is no question that the school would make the cut if conditions ever warranted the Big East extending an invitation to a mid-major. It provides St. Louis as a market, and it provides some proximity to Creighton, etc.

Importantly, it does not infringe upon any existing member's area. Dayton is in the worse shape possible for expansion in that regard. It has a loyal following, but it's in Dayton, which doesn't add anything in its own right. And times have changed since the days of Xavier helping UD get into the A10. It's fair to say that Villanova would not want Temple or St. Joe's in the Big East. I suspect Creighton would become physically ill if an invitation were extended to Wichita State. DePaul could not possibly want an invitation going out to Loyola. Same here when it comes to Dayton's chances with Xavier sitting less than 50 miles down the road - and, for that matter, with Butler rather close by - in what already is a basketball intensive area for major programs, let alone Dayton and MAC schools.

Otherwise, Fox has been a fantastic media partner for the Big East. The Madison Square Garden relationship is very strong, very important and very valued. Believe me, there is nothing like the BET conference tournament anywhere, and it will only get crazier with UCONN in the mix. Leadership of the Big East is truly top shelf.

All that is to suggest that the right moves will be made the next time moves are to be made. We have discussed off and on what the next media agreement may bring for the 11-member schools. It is generally believed that the per school amount is going up from the roughly $4.1 million per school per year figure now. I don't believe it would surprise anyone here if that per school amount makes its way north of $7 million per year. Thank you Nova. Thank you for returning, UCONN. Thank you overall conference for performing well in annual conference rankings and in racking up NCAAT Units.

It may be fair and reasonable to ask about the relative differences in program values from one program to the next, but it seems that only upward pressure will now be applied to any non-Big East program that wants to become a Big East member, assuming the next media agreement lands as described above. Fox is about monetizing a collective group of schools in a way that makes sense for Fox and the schools comprising the conference. As has been noted by others, neither Fox or the Big East leadership has any desire to dilute per school cash flows.

The last thing I'll add here is just a little perspective on the difference between the Big East and the A10. My opinion, of course, but as a fan of a school that has now spent a lot of time in both conferences. There simply is no comparison, especially with the A10 in its current state. You can't imagine the grind of going through this conference. There are no nights off, not even against DePaul, as an example. Show up in Omaha or Milwaukee and be welcomed by over 17,000 fans in beautiful facilities. Show up at the Pavillion on the Mainline and see how that works out for you. The Pru, when its rocking, or the Dunkin Donuts Center are simply tough places to play. Now we have St. Johns beginning to hit its stride again. UCONN's recruiting is flourishing now that it has come back to the BE. It's nuts across the board. But all that is reflected in the number of bids this conference tends to rack up.

That brings us back to where we stand presently: in a strong position as a conference with a solid existing configuration of 11 schools, with the round robin being of value at this time, and with an expectation for a material increase in our media agreement in the not too distant future. I'm not sure that needs messed with, unless something rather striking happens.

Thank you for the thoughtful and detailed post. I agree that Georgetown would have significant sway in any decision about VCU joining the BE and I have no clue where they stand currently.

As an interesting aside, I sort of think St. Louis would be a good addition to the B12 if BYU joins as a football only member. Dayton would be too, but I think Cincinnati might nix them, plus SLU has the added advantage of residing in the same state as the B12 tournament.

While it was only a year, I still remember playing Butler and Xavier during the 2013 A10 regular season. Those were exhilarating games, and I can say that Butler-VCU was the loudest, most rowdy game I've seen live, despite it being during Spring Break. I can understand the grind and excitement of the Big East conference season.

Just one last thought that I think was already mentioned. While the Big East would likely have to abandon the round-robin conference format if it added more than one additional team, on the back-end the Big East conference tournament could/would expand an additional round. I feel like an extra 5 conference tournament games would be valuable to Fox.

[kayako]

I don't know how much of it is wishful thinking, but there's some talk about the Big 12 taking 2 more schools in addition to BYU, UCF, Cinci, and Houston. Things are looking disastrous for Wichita and Temple basketball programs.

[Doge McDermott]

Hey guys, popping in to throw gasoline on the fire. Big 12 is rumored to be taking BYU, Cincy, Houston and UCF on Friday. With the imminent implosion of the AAC, should the BE pick the leftovers to expand?

I look forward to your well reasoned discussion. Also, can we finally put to bed expanding with Dayton, VCU and St. Louis? If we don't take AAC teams, we're damn sure not going to pick up anyone else.

No remaining members in the American are a fit for the Big East. The big dog, Memphis, will not have a need (or interest) in pursuing the UConn path (FBS Independent, BE Olympic Sports). Memphis, as are programs like USF, SMU and Boise State, are "on-deck" for another Big 12 expansion invitation, especially planning on playing with fourteen members until Texas and Oklahoma depart for the SEC. Even without a Big East affiliation, Memphis has survived in the American, C-USA, the Great Midwest, the Metro, the MVC and as an Independent. As good as their basketball program is and can be, their academics and Southern footprint are not a fit for the Big East.

Temple will never be given a look as long as Villanova is in the Big East. Just is what it is. Programs like ECU, Tulane and USF are each a non-starter. Wichita State, despite being a basketball-first school with great resources, facilities and recent high-level success, is very much a new kid on the block at the high levels of college basketball. Take away Marshall's run there, and they are very much a mid-major. In addition, their academics would be dead-last in the Big East. Very confident that the BE Presidents would never approve of Wichita State entering the Big East.

SMU, despite its resources and recent success in men's basketball, has always been a football-first athletic program. Same goes for Tulsa. Both are way outside the footprint and should never be considered.

This is a well thought out take and I basically agree with all of it. The only two members I would have considered were Memphis and, excuse me while I throw up in my mouth, Wichita. Hardaway + NILs will radically transform Memphis. Wichita needs to prove themselves post-Gregggggggg, but I think they will. But otherwise, picking at the AAC's carcass, there's very little meat there. They're barely A-10 level now.

[DudeAnon]

I would be fine with any of Wichita, Dayton and VCU but I don't think its really imperative to add right now. I am not a fan of SLU, I just don't think they have the fanbase that some believe they do.

[NH63]

Saint Louis fan here just observing from afar. While SLU fans would love to be the next addition to the Big East, I don't think any are expecting that call to come any time soon. It seems as though there may be some consideration that SLU isn't as committed to basketball as some Big East fans might want for a new addition to the league. I would just note that SLU's basketball budget (as of most recent public data in 2019) is bigger than VCU, Xavier, Depaul and Butler. The financial investment in the program has increased substantially in the past decade, largely driven by the program's biggest booster, Richard Chaifetz. If SLU were to ever join the Big East, I don't think it would have difficulty fitting in from a financial, facilities, or other expenditure perspective. And on a more personal note, I really miss the games against Marquette, DePaul and Xavier.

Regardless, with all of the football-dominated realignment going on I can guarantee that SLU and Atlantic 10 fans more broadly will be rooting for the Big East harder than ever, as basketball-only programs continue to dig in to confirm their relevance in the broader NCAA landscape.

[Novachap]

The irony of this is the BE may be the savior (pun intended) for Wichita. That said, there is a part of me that enjoys some of them squirming through this. Anybody else remember a few shocker fans with the "big pee, church league, Nova and the dwarfs " comments to name just a few? Clearly, the BE was not worthy. Karma, it's a mf'er

[adoraz]

Wichita I'm sure would've accepted a Big East invitation over their AAC one if offered. Since joining the AAC they haven't elevated their program at all. No chance they get poached right away, but just like VCU, Dayton and St. Louis they're a team to keep an eye on.

I also doubt Fox would push for more inventory. They didn't when they had much less inventory in 2013, so why now? 11 is perfect for now, I feel like people are only speculating because of the Big XII, but that's a totally different situation.