Conference Realignment: What Next?

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

Link:

Holy shit Batman:

https://mobile.twitter.com/jackmaccfb/status/1418678701135384579?s=10

SEC has been in serious contact with Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson, and Florida State.

Not clear if this will materialize, but they have their eyes on a true 20 team MEGA conference.

Oklahoma and Texas just the start.

Is the SEC Creating a Super Conference? - Brooks Austin, SI.com - July 24, 2021

Superconference. That's the term being thrown around with a total of 20 teams. This not only would change college football forever, but it would render the other conferences rather useless against the powers of the SEC.

Latest conference realignment rumor states SEC in 'serious contact' with Michigan and Ohio State – Robert Bondy, USA Today – July 25, 2021

SEC takeover: Expansion would just mean more power, wealth - Ralph D. Russo, AP/ The Washington Post – July 26, 2021

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COLLEGE FOOTBALL NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS IN NCAA DIVISION I FBS – Wikipedia

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Link:

TABLE 4: Niche's 2021 Best Colleges in America - SCHOOL RANKINGS

Niche Rank • Niche Grade • School • Conference • Niche Net Price

11 • A+ • Vanderbilt Commodores • Southeastern • $25,855
23 • A+ • MICHIGAN WOLVERINES • BIG TEN • $17,357
56 • A+ • Florida Gators • Southeastern • $10,457
57 • A+ • TEXAS LONGHORNS • BIG 12 • $15,502
59 • A+ • Georgia Bulldogs • Southeastern • $15,961
80 • A+ • Texas A&M Aggies • Southeastern • $19,237
92 • A+ • OHIO STATE BUCKEYES • BIG TEN • $18,706
94 • A • FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES • ACC • $12,568
99 • A • CLEMSON TIGERS • ACC • $21,482
134 • A • Auburn Tigers • Southeastern • $23,562

153 • Southeastern Conference - Average Niche Ranking for Present 14 Schools

156 • A • OKLAHOMA SOONERS • BIG 12 • $21,804
161 • A • South Carolina Gamecocks • Southeastern • $21,787
164 • A • Alabama Crimson Tide • Southeastern • $20,623
167 • A- • Mississippi State Bulldogs • Southeastern • $16,471
175 • A- • Missouri Tigers • Southeastern • $15,850
182 • A- • Arkansas Razorbacks • Southeastern • $16,263
201 • A- • Ole Miss Rebels • Southeastern • $14,672
223 • A- • Tennessee Volunteers • Southeastern • $21,024
241 • A- • LSU Tigers • Southeastern • $18,143
283 • B+ • Kentucky Wildcats • Southeastern • $18,958

Interesting days for college athletics ...
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[ArmyVet]

OU and Texas officially notified the Big 12 that they would not renew the grant of right contracts that expire in 2025, but would honor them through that time.

[Omaha1]

OU and Texas officially notified the Big 12 that they would not renew the grant of right contracts that expire in 2025, but would honor them through that time.

They are doing and saying all of the right things legally. It will be so interesting to see what happens now. Does the Big 12 act aggressively to add schools and would Texas and Oklahoma get votes on those if they’re still in the league?

[Bogg]

Contracts mean nothing. As you are seeing realignment will happen and every School President and AD needs to be locked in. Most schools took a blood bath financially last year and if you don’t make money on football it gets even tougher. Xavier was already in trouble financially and Seton Hall and Providence not far behind. The Big East need to be aggressive, be out of the box and not get lost in the realignment.. If you think they can stay put and it will be ok your naive. I would find a way to get Gonzaga involved, and Add VCU, Wichita State or Dayton. We need a new contract and offer more games and inventory to Fox and or ESPN. This is a freight train and we don’t want to get rolled over. The Big schools would love to see that happen…stay tuned.

If we start seeing super conferences of 16 teams we definitely need to be proactive. Gonzaga, BYU, SLU, Dayton and VCU would get us to 16. Kansas would be great if the B1G rejects them.

You don't go out adding teams willy-nilly in hopes that it'll make Fox happy. You go to Fox for early discussions and make it clear you're open to discuss additions if they make the media partner happy. The only schools you add without clear direction would be an unexpected B12 cast-off. Otherwise if Fox (or whoever the media partner is, but Fox is much easier to have early discussions with) wants one or more schools from the A-10/MVC/AAC you oblige.

[gtmoBlue]

CBS/Ben Kercheval article...

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footb ... greements/

In 2016, Iowa State athletic director Jamie Pollard made this prescient statement: "The Big 12 exists because we have Texas and Oklahoma in the room. If we take Texas and Oklahoma out of the room, we're the Mountain West Conference."

Those words hit like a sledgehammer today. As the SEC shocked the world by preparing to assume the 'Horns and Sooners, the Big 12 lost 50% to 75% of its value, several industry sources tell CBS Sports. [color=#0040BF]Their TV contracts with ESPN and Fox contain language that allows the Big 12 to reduce payouts if there is a loss of membership.[/color]

"When you're losing two of the most visible programs, the network has the right to come and say, 'We're going to reduce the rights by X.'" one longtime, high-profile administrator said.

That means the Big 12 deal could drop from $37 million in annual revenue to as low as $9 million per school. Considering there aren't two schools available that come close to replacing the value of Texas and Oklahoma, the Big 12 is in troubled waters to say the least.

Will the B1G pick up Moo U (ISU) and Jayhawk basketball...for $50M/year, each? NO. Sure the KU football guarantees an extra win for whomever plays them, but is one win worth $40-43M? KU hoops is only worth $7-10M/year...like everybody else. None of the remaining B12 schools move the needle in football. B1G will continue to look East...at the ACC; with a longshot looking at the Left Coast (PAC12 schools). There is no hurry, contracts don't come due until 2024 & 2025.

That $35-37M/Year figure is total revenues. ESPN/Fox only pays the B12 $20M/yr per school. So strict TV revenues could drop to as low as $4M/year, then add other revenue streams. Welcome back to the real world Big 12.

B12's best shot is with the AAC - either poaching or being poached. Aresco wants the AAC to poach 5 of the remaining B12 schools. Either way the B12 is destined for mid-major status. Who'd a thunk it?
Congrats to the Big !2.

[ArmyVet]

What happens to the remaining Big 12 programs?
Unfortunately, the future doesn't look too rosy for any of them. Industry sources indicated to ESPN on Sunday the SEC's potential additions of Oklahoma and Texas might be the first step in the formation of a single superconference, which would one day include as many as 60 teams or as few as 32. Under that scenario, powerhouse teams from the ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC and Notre Dame would fold into one single entity. Those schools would play each other and no one else.

The other FBS teams, including some of the teams from the aforementioned leagues and those from the AAC, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West and SunBelt, would essentially drop to a lower division. Other scenarios include the formation of three or four superconferences, or some sort of alliance between the ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 to offset the SEC's growing strength

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https://www.espn.com/college-football/s ... -questions

[Xudash]

Contracts mean nothing. As you are seeing realignment will happen and every School President and AD needs to be locked in. Most schools took a blood bath financially last year and if you don’t make money on football it gets even tougher. Xavier was already in trouble financially and Seton Hall and Providence not far behind. The Big East need to be aggressive, be out of the box and not get lost in the realignment.. If you think they can stay put and it will be ok your naive. I would find a way to get Gonzaga involved, and Add VCU, Wichita State or Dayton. We need a new contract and offer more games and inventory to Fox and or ESPN. This is a freight train and we don’t want to get rolled over. The Big schools would love to see that happen…stay tuned.

Xavier just successfully completed a $250 million capital campaign ($257MM). It's put a half billion dollars into its campus since 2000. It receives over 15,000 applications per year from all over the country and overseas for about 1,000 freshman slots. And I very much doubt that Seton Hall and Providence are "in trouble financially." You should consider that making generalized statements such as the one you made about the financial condition of 3 existing BE schools doesn't make them look bad, it makes you look like a fool who doesn't know what he's talking about.

Gonzaga isn't getting involved. The geography simply doesn't work.

Finally, on the national level, especially with the direction things are going, no one cares about adding three mid-majors to what is clearly a major basketball conference. That would seem to be a dilutive move. I can't imagine Fox would consider that to be an accretive move for the BE's media agreement. You believe staying put is naive. Your recommendation strikes me as being reactive at this point.

There is nothing to solve for when it comes to basketball right now. We have time to watch and see how all the football shuffling works out before we need to react to anything, especially given that all the shuffling may pop out a few very interesting expansion candidates for the BE.

[gtmoBlue]

Excellent synopsis Dash.

One never knows what wrinkle may crop up in the Football goings on.
A real gem or two just may be shook loose in whatever mayhem may transpire. Patience and watch closely.

[kayako]

B12's best shot is with the AAC - either poaching or being poached. Aresco wants the AAC to poach 5 of the remaining B12 schools. Either way the B12 is destined for mid-major status. Who'd a thunk it?
Congrats to the Big !2.

AAC poaching left behind B12 teams? That reminds me of the time when Atlantic 10 made a generous offer to welcome catholic 7 schools.

https://theathletic.com/2729547/2021/07/26/williams-cincinnati-commits-to-proactive-approach-as-conference-realignment-rides-again/?source=twitterhq

I think the AAC ultimately survives, though. I can't see enough B12 teams being desired by B1G & PAC12, and similarly I can't see enough AAC teams being desired by the B12 to completely wreck the conference. If I am Bowlsby I'd just get back to 10 members, stay nimble and see what happens to the PAC12 & ACC.

[kayako]

For the Big East, I wonder what this does for the Big 12 Battle. Do we look to opt-out? Or do we wait and see who they add? If they do add a UCF or a Boise State, I think we look to bail. Cincinnati or Memphis or Houston? Look to keep?

Final NET ranking from last season:

2 Baylor
12 Texas Tech
17 Kansas
22 WVU
28 OSU
133 TCU
176 KSU
224 ISU

It'd be silly to drop the series imo.