Conference Realignment: What Next?

[Xudash]

There is an article titled Five scenarios for the future of college conference realignment in THE ATHLETIC:

https://theathletic.com/1090554/2019/07/25/five-scenarios-for-the-future-of-college-conference-realignment/

Some reaction to it includes much of what we've concluded here about it:

1. It's no longer just about linear media deals, but the combination of linear and digital in media economics that will influence media deals moving forward.

2. The programs that didn't find a chair in musical chairs the last time, UC, UCF, UConn, et al most likely won't have one made available the next time around. The Big XII's last full run at expansion is cited as the reason for that. As widely understood, none of those programs moved the economic needle enough to warrant their inclusion in the conference.

3. A premise is that change has happened so much before that change should be expected in the future. Pay for play could become THE issue in forcing some kind of separation from the real haves from the true have nots. Someone mentioned virtually detaching the top programs from their universities and turning them into investment opportunities for super boosters! Good luck getting alumni to care about that.

4. A specific example of a possible change catalyst for the next round involves Texas, specifically, and Texas and Oklahoma as a packaged deal. Texas gets $31mm from its Big XII distribution and another $15mm from the Longhorn Network, or $51mm total. That amount - $51mm - apparently equals the B1G's payout per team next year. So, Texas is "fine" while the other Big XII members "languish" at $31mm apiece. The conjecture is that they could go independent or they could saddle up with the B1G or the ACC. Will they feel a need to do that? That becomes a function of how well the Big XII does with its next media deal, and with only its existing 10 members involved in it.

If anyone has access to THE ATHLETIC, please feel free to share some of the key notes from the article.

My bottomline with all this:

1. They continue to solve and will always primarily solve for football at the top, leaving basketball and the NCAAT alone as the cash cow that it is.

2. UConn was smart to say enough is enough and go the route they're now going.

3. The AAC is the closest thing to Purgatory on earth that exists, at least in the world of sports, and there is no hope for UC, UCF, Houston, etc.


In the face of all this, subject to what happens with any movement involving paying collegiate basketball players, I'd say the Big East could not be in a better position, unless it finds itself adding Notre Dame down the road.

[scoscox]

A realignment thread? Dash what have you done?

[Xudash]

I know. But this really isn’t about basketball, per se. If anything, this confirms that we should be OK with the way we are now with UConn moving forward.

Just looking down the road a little bit, albeit again.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Power conference realignment is likely dead until the 2030's, when the next TV deals are close to expiring (specifically, the ACC). With each passing year, it seems more and more likely that the Big 12 will remain intact through their next deal, so Texas and Oklahoma aren't likely to move (especially with the political ramifications of leaving behind Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, respectively). The Big East, too, looks content and satisfied with eleven members for the long-haul. I've long said it, but the P5 membership grouping is likely locked-down and secured for a while. There's no need to invite from the G5, as no new member can add value.

The G5 alignment, however, is a completely different story. As costs continue to rise, and spending by the P5 only gets larger by the year, and the inevitability of an official football breakaway by the P5, what should happen is a consolidation of the G5 into its own football subdivision under FBS/D1. They would have their own playoffs and own autonomy. They also would rearrange the divisions (mainly to help with the Sun Belt and C-USA overlap) to help with travel, then have their own eight-team playoff for an FBS-II playoffs and championship. Below is what it could look like:

Atlantic
Appalachian State
Coastal Carolina
Liberty
Marshall
Middle Tennessee State
Old Dominion
UNC Charlotte
Western Kentucky

Metro
Cincinnati
ECU
Houston
Memphis
Navy
SMU
UCF
USF

Midwest
Ball State
Bowling Green
Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan
Miami
NIU
Toledo
Western Michigan

Mountain West
Air Force
Colorado State
New Mexico
New Mexico State
North Texas
Tulsa
UTEP
Wyoming

Northeast
Akron
Army
Buffalo
Kent State
Ohio
Temple
UConn
UMass

Southeast
UAB
FAU
FIU
Georgia Southern
Georgia State
South Alabama
Southern Mississippi
Troy

Southwest
Arkansas State
LA Tech
UL-Lafayette
UL-Monroe
Tulane
Rice
Texas State
UTSA

West
Boise State
Fresno State
Hawaii
Nevada
San Diego State
San Jose State
UNLV
Utah State

[DudeAnon]

The media sports rights bubble seems to of officially popped and thus stopped expansion. Personally, I do think they should pay the players or at least let outside parties pay them.

[Omaha1]

What’s next? Good timing. Apparently, it’s IPFW to Horizon.

[Bogg]

Power conference realignment is likely dead until the 2030's, when the next TV deals are close to expiring (specifically, the ACC). With each passing year, it seems more and more likely that the Big 12 will remain intact through their next deal, so Texas and Oklahoma aren't likely to move (especially with the political ramifications of leaving behind Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, respectively). The Big East, too, looks content and satisfied with eleven members for the long-haul. I've long said it, but the P5 membership grouping is likely locked-down and secured for a while. There's no need to invite from the G5, as no new member can add value.

The G5 alignment, however, is a completely different story. As costs continue to rise, and spending by the P5 only gets larger by the year, and the inevitability of an official football breakaway by the P5, what should happen is a consolidation of the G5 into its own football subdivision under FBS/D1. They would have their own playoffs and own autonomy. They also would rearrange the divisions (mainly to help with the Sun Belt and C-USA overlap) to help with travel, then have their own eight-team playoff for an FBS-II playoffs and championship. Below is what it could look like:

Atlantic
Appalachian State
Coastal Carolina
Liberty
Marshall
Middle Tennessee State
Old Dominion
UNC Charlotte
Western Kentucky

Metro
Cincinnati
ECU
Houston
Memphis
Navy
SMU
UCF
USF

Midwest
Ball State
Bowling Green
Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan
Miami
NIU
Toledo
Western Michigan

Mountain West
Air Force
Colorado State
New Mexico
New Mexico State
North Texas
Tulsa
UTEP
Wyoming

Northeast
Akron
Army
Buffalo
Kent State
Ohio
Temple
UConn
UMass

Southeast
UAB
FAU
FIU
Georgia Southern
Georgia State
South Alabama
Southern Mississippi
Troy

Southwest
Arkansas State
LA Tech
UL-Lafayette
UL-Monroe
Tulane
Rice
Texas State
UTSA

West
Boise State
Fresno State
Hawaii
Nevada
San Diego State
San Jose State
UNLV
Utah State

I think there's too much money tied up in the bowl system (the participation trophy of postseasons), and too many upwardly aspirational programs, to ever have a really comprehensive reform like this (and I assume that these would be football-only conferences, otherwise there are other issues to discuss as well).

However, you do hear more and more noise about some of the geographic dissatisfaction at the lower levels of G5 ball and I wonder if something will eventually happen there. I don't know whether it will be organized school-trading between the SB and CUSA or the number of football independents hitting a critical mass where it no longer is a major scheduling issue to be independent, allowing schools to join more geographically-sensible Olympic sports conferences. IF they could be guaranteed a certain number of home and away games every year, for example, I wonder if Charlotte and Old Dominion might prefer A10 Olympic sports and football independence to their current CUSA lineup. If UConn, UMass, Army, Liberty, ODU, and Charlotte are all sitting there as East Coast independents to make for easy October/November scheduling, do App State and Coastal start thinking about the CAA or SoCon? Do some mix of JMU/Delaware/Chattanooga start thinking about a move up if the rest of their sports are able to stay in their current homes?

I guess this is where I talk myself into the fairly-crazy idea of the Carolina and Virginia CUSA/SB schools being dissatisfied enough with their travel to jump indy en masse, which also paves the way for FCS move-ups, but I still think that's more workable than wholesale organized G5 re-classification.

[jaxalum]

4. A specific example of a possible change catalyst for the next round involves Texas, specifically, and Texas and Oklahoma as a packaged deal. Texas gets $31mm from its Big XII distribution and another $15mm from the Longhorn Network, or $51mm total. That amount - $51mm - apparently equals the B1G's payout per team next year. So, Texas is "fine" while the other Big XII members "languish" at $31mm apiece. The conjecture is that they could go independent or they could saddle up with the B1G or the ACC. Will they feel a need to do that? That becomes a function of how well the Big XII does with its next media deal, and with only its existing 10 members involved in it.

3. The AAC is the closest thing to Purgatory on earth that exists, at least in the world of sports, and there is no hope for UC, UCF, Houston, etc.

Great post Dash. I was unable to read the article (no subscription), but what I gleaned from the above was that if change does occur, it would involve Texas and/or Oklahoma (although you eloquently pointed out reasons against such an occurrence). If either or both were to leave, would the Big XII be forced to add 2 teams (one potentially being UC)?

One of my worse case realignment scenarios consists of UC joining a Power Conference. Perhaps i'm being petty, but the thought of watching UC languish in Limbo (also known as the AAC) for many, many years to come, is like chugging a large glass of liquid Dopamine. I've actually perused their 247 board after Mick left, and they are in full delusional justification mode. I NEVER thought I would say these words, but they are starting to sound similar to UD fans (they are still 15-20 years away from achieving UDs level of nonsensical delirium)

[admin]

Summit League plans to add D3 St. Thomas (MN).

A Division III school that was "involuntarily" removed from its league because it was too dominant has been invited to make the jump to Division I athletics.

The University of St. Thomas, which was expelled from the Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference in May for "competitive" reasons, has received an invite to join the Summit League, a Division I mid-major conference, officials announced Friday.

Schools are barred by NCAA rules from making the leap from Division III to Division I, but St. Thomas has applied for a waiver. If granted, the school would begin to compete in the Summit League in 2021, following its final two years in the MIAC.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/s ... ion-invite

[gtmoBlue]

Well okay. Nova gets expelled for "competitive" reasons from the BEast? Dixon is causing a "shortage" of Dunkin Donuts in the Mid Atlantic states.