USC and UCLA to the Big Ten by 2024?

[adoraz]

The P2 will be all about football, so I don’t see them getting all the top basketball talent. At worst, we might be looking at a split national championship or co-champions. But I really don’t see the P2 walking away from the current system in basketball.

In the case of a P2 breakaway in basketball, I think saying "at worst" we'd have a split championship would be too optimistic. That'd be more an "at best" scenario. If this were to happen (again, neither of us think it would) then the P2 would do everything possible to ensure that their tournament and programs would be viewed as the most desirable for recruiting and would pour whatever money is needed into making that happen. That'd be an extremely difficult task and it'd be much easier to simply invite schools from the Big East and other top basketball conferences rather than try to erase national fanbases and programs, but regardless the P2 would not settle for being viewed as equals to the NCAA as that'd just fracture the fan bases and thus viewership. Either they'd create the premiere tournament or they won't do anything at all.

The NCAA Tournament is lucrative as it is so they'd really have to have everything in line for a breakaway to happen. That IMO means including the Big East and a bunch of programs that likely will never be fully admitted as a P2 member (Kansas, Duke, Syracuse, UNC, Gonzaga). Add those programs to a P2 tournament and the NCAA Tournament would essentially be dead and thus no longer competition for the P2 tournament. That said, we ultimately agree that the P2 won't walk away from the current system in basketball.

[Savannah Jay]

The P2 will be all about football, so I don’t see them getting all the top basketball talent. At worst, we might be looking at a split national championship or co-champions. But I really don’t see the P2 walking away from the current system in basketball.

In the case of a P2 breakaway in basketball, I think saying "at worst" we'd have a split championship would be too optimistic. That'd be more an "at best" scenario. If this were to happen (again, neither of us think it would) then the P2 would do everything possible to ensure that their tournament and programs would be viewed as the most desirable for recruiting and would pour whatever money is needed into making that happen. That'd be an extremely difficult task and it'd be much easier to simply invite schools from the Big East and other top basketball conferences rather than try to erase national fanbases and programs, but regardless the P2 would not settle for being viewed as equals to the NCAA as that'd just fracture the fan bases and thus viewership. Either they'd create the premiere tournament or they won't do anything at all.

The NCAA Tournament is lucrative as it is so they'd really have to have everything in line for a breakaway to happen. That IMO means including the Big East and a bunch of programs that likely will never be fully admitted as a P2 member (Kansas, Duke, Syracuse, UNC, Gonzaga). Add those programs to a P2 tournament and the NCAA Tournament would essentially be dead and thus no longer competition for the P2 tournament. That said, we ultimately agree that the P2 won't walk away from the current system in basketball.

Agreed...certainly your second paragraph is spot on...for the P2, football is the dog and basketball is the tail. Football takes in 3 to 4 times as much revenue as basketball. To your point, the P2 having a basketball tournament to the exclusion of other schools means only 4 (Florida x 2, Kentucky, and Maryland) of the last 20 NCAA champs would be represented. That would not make for a legitimate natty.

In the yahoo article linked below, the biggest basketball revenue schools are Louisville ($42M), Duke ($37M), Kentucky ($30M), UNC ($27M), and Indiana ($26M). Any tournament that doesn't include the biggest names, fan bases and revenues won't be seen as legit. For context, Georgia has the most football revenue ($134M), followed by Michigan ($126), Ohio State ($116), and Alabama ($110). Adding UCLA and USC might bump the basketball needle but it's football driving the bus.

https://www.yahoo.com/video/college-sports-most-money-130012417.html

[adoraz]

Yeah it's to the Big East's benefit that so many of the highest revenue basketball schools have dreadful football. What that means is the networks would NOT want to add those schools as football members getting paid $100 million per year. Rather they would either be added to a hypothetical breakaway conference as non-football members, invited to participate in a P2 basketball tournament, or would be added at greatly reduced payouts which gets really dicey. Any of these scenarios would likely open the door for Big East participation as well.

Ultimately the networks are driving everything, and they absolutely want schools like Kansas and Duke getting basketball money rather than football money. The Big East needs to be really careful these next few years not to expand with mediocre programs given where things are heading.

[Jasper67]

Yeah it's to the Big East's benefit that so many of the highest revenue basketball schools have dreadful football. What that means is the networks would NOT want to add those schools as football members getting paid $100 million per year. Rather they would either be added to a hypothetical breakaway conference as non-football members, invited to participate in a P2 basketball tournament, or would be added at greatly reduced payouts which gets really dicey. Any of these scenarios would likely open the door for Big East participation as well.

Ultimately the networks are driving everything, and they absolutely want schools like Kansas and Duke getting basketball money rather than football money. The Big East needs to be really careful these next few years not to expand with mediocre programs given where things are heading.

Great point which bears repeating. The Big East will not expand with mediocre programs. Fox will insist on it.Gonzaga is the only non-football program which moves the needle at this point.

[Husky_U]

hmmmmm

Rob Dauster
@RobDauster
Getting word of some pretty significant college basketball news coming down the pipeline.
Expecting it to drop Tuesday or Wednesday.
9:40 PM · Aug 22, 2022

[kayako]

hmmmmm

Rob Dauster
@RobDauster
Getting word of some pretty significant college basketball news coming down the pipeline.
Expecting it to drop Tuesday or Wednesday.
9:40 PM · Aug 22, 2022

I doubt Dauster is the first to mention realignment news. We'll see.

[Jet915]

hmmmmm

Rob Dauster
@RobDauster
Getting word of some pretty significant college basketball news coming down the pipeline.
Expecting it to drop Tuesday or Wednesday.
9:40 PM · Aug 22, 2022

I doubt Dauster is the first to mention realignment news. We'll see.

It's gonna be something like a new show on their field of 68 or something like that....

[Jet915]

The Field of 68
@TheFieldOf68
We promised something big today. Well, this sucker's HUGE.
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