Conference Realignment: What Next?

[redmen9194]

Conference realignment this go around has no impact on the Big East. We do not need to expand nor would expansion be of any benefit to us. 11 teams with a 20 game schedule is perfect. Let's just sit back and play basketball like Dave Gavitt intended us to.

[butlerguy03]

Who's the first to give up on FBS and go to FCS? UMass?

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

.

Conference realignment this go around has no impact on the Big East.

I agree.

We do not need to expand nor would expansion be of any benefit to us. 11 teams with a 20 game schedule is perfect.

Let's just sit back and play basketball like Dave Gavitt intended us to.

Again, I agree. Under the present TV Rights Contract (2013-2025), Fox Sports has no leverage to force the Big East to expand. Any decision to expand prior to the expiry of the contract in 2025 is at the sole discretion of the presidents of the 11 Big East institutions – requiring a 75% majority vote.

In 2025, the situation changes dramatically, as Fox Sports will be in a position to dictate the terms of the next TV Rights Contract. Fox Spots will want more eyes watching Big East basketball on TV, an increase in market share and in ratings (principally in the St. Louis, Richmond, and Dayton DMAs), and selling more expensive TV commercials reaching bigger TV viewing audiences, generating a bigger return for Fox Sports.

In short, Fox will be able to force the Big East to expand to 14 teams in 2025, it is likely they will do so, and the Dayton Flyers, Saint Louis Billikens, and VCU Rams will join the Big East for the 2025-26 season. You heard it here first.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Of more immediate concern is the fate of the Leftovers stuck in the CAA:

’Leftover’ American Athletic Conference Schools (Sorted by Niche’s 2021 College Ranking)

Niche Rank • Niche Grade • School • Conference • Enrolment

66 • A+ • Tulane Green Wave • American Athletic • 11,722
86 • A+ • SMU Mustangs • American Athletic • 11,649
118 • A • South Florida Bulls • American Athletic • 50,830
124 • A • Tulsa Golden Hurricane • American Athletic • 3,343
200 • A- • Temple Owls • American Athletic • 39,755
523 • B • Memphis Tigers • American Athletic • 21,458
529 • B • East Carolina Pirates • American Athletic • 28,718
835 • B- • Wichita State Shockers • American Athletic • 15,778

(1) What is Mike Aresco’s next move? The Atlantic 10 schools already have better exposure and ratings on ESPN than the remaining AAC schools.

(2) Temple is now a serious geographic outlier. They may consider going independent in football (like UConn and UMass) and apply to rejoin the Atlantic 10 or more likely, apply to join the Big East. We’ll see.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[gtmoBlue]

Flyer evidently doesn't read The Athletic. The Big 12 is planning to do a "Round 2" with another 4 teams.

Those AAC teams need not worry.

AS for Dayton, SLU, and VCU to the BE? Keep dreamin' Flyer.

[adoraz]

For the Big XII I think adding 8 additional teams could work just because they've already lost their 2 biggest properties (by far) who drove up the per-team payout. At this point NONE of their current teams are worth a high amount (by P5 standards) and most of them are probably worth roughly the same amount. The same applies for the teams they're poaching from the AAC and other conferences, meaning they're poaching teams that won't drag down their per-team payout. They're just going for sheer numbers (of middling teams). Teams like Cincy would've dragged down their per-team payout before Texas and OU left. Not anymore.

That's a totally different situation than the Big East's. UConn, Villanova and Georgetown are worth multiple times more than St. Louis, VCU and Dayton. Adding those teams, all of which would be bottom half or at best middle-tier teams (in terms of value), would decrease our per-team payout.

If the Big East loses their top teams, then sure, go crazy with the Big XII's strategy and become the A10+. For now that wouldn't make any sense, though.

[Jet915]

Big XII will become the next American and once their contract renews their payout will be cut in half without OU and Texas. Their basketball will still be pretty good but it wont move the contract needle much....

[Violet Ram]

That's a totally different situation than the Big East's. UConn, Villanova and Georgetown are worth multiple times more than St. Louis, VCU and Dayton. Adding those teams, all of which would be bottom half or at best middle-tier teams (in terms of value), would decrease our per-team payout.

If the Big East loses their top teams, then sure, go crazy with the Big XII's strategy and become the A10+. For now that wouldn't make any sense, though.

How are UConn, Villanova and Georgetown worth multiple times more than SLU, VCU and Dayton? I'm curious which metric you're using to make that valuation.

[Gopher+RamFan]

That's a totally different situation than the Big East's. UConn, Villanova and Georgetown are worth multiple times more than St. Louis, VCU and Dayton. Adding those teams, all of which would be bottom half or at best middle-tier teams (in terms of value), would decrease our per-team payout.

I don't post here much, but I'm a VCU fan who's been a member since 2013 (had a different username). The same old arguments on expansion are made and nothing much has changed w/r/t VCU, Dayton or SLU. There's nowhere for that trio to go other than the Big East, and there's no incentive for the BE to expand right now.

That said, last time this came up I posted that VCU currently receives $2 million/year for its media rights. From what I saw then, Georgetown had a similar contract with incentives for up to $2.5 million/year based on performance (with a $2 million ceiling). If that's incorrect please let me know. Of course GU gets the Big East's media rights share in addition, and VCU is stuck with their $350k a year from the A-10.

I haven't been able to find what Dayton or SLU get in their tertiary media rights deal. VCU's gone through 5 coaches in 16 years, built a $25 million practice facility and still remained an NCAA tournament team nearly every single year - mostly as an at large. I think we missed 2 or 3 tournaments in that span. It is an institutional commitment to basketball and I'm sure if we were ever invited to the Big East we wouldn't be bottom half in performance. As student athletes can now get branding deals and VCU is the "top dog" in the Richmond area - brand deals are already getting worked on. It's already made a change in recruiting for us, thankfully. Add in that the campus is on the I-95 corridor, and VCU fans travel well (especially to NYC during the conference tourney), I think VCU would be at least a value neutral add overall.

Anyway, outside of the media rights deal numbers there's really nothing to go on outside of our perceptions. Regardless, the Big East shouldn't expand before the deal comes up for renewal in a few years.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

UConn, Villanova and Georgetown are worth multiple times more than St. Louis, VCU and Dayton.

How are UConn, Villanova and Georgetown worth multiple times more than SLU, VCU and Dayton?

Violet Ram – this topic has been discussed for years, and on many threads. Yet, posts such as adoraz’s keep appearing on HLOH.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Value of College Hoops Teams – HLOH thread - sju88grad - April 1, 2016 • 18 posts • last post on April 9, 2016

Interesting Wall Street Journal article on the value of college basketball teams...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-much-i ... 1459459516

Rank - Team • 2015 Valuation

11 -Connecticut ($137,900,000)
24 - Dayton ($80,600,000)
26 – Xavier ($78,100,000)
35 – Marquette ($59,600,000)
37 – St. John’s ($55,000,000)

51 – DePaul ($42,900,000)
52 – Georgetown($42,200,000)
54 – Villanova ($40,400,000)
73 – Providence ($29,700,000)
78 – Creighton ($28,100,000)
79 – Seton Hall ($27,700,000)
93 – Butler ($20,200,000)
96 - Saint Louis ($18,600,000)

Conference TV Contracts and Revenue – HLOH thread – Fieldhouse Flyer - April 22, 2017 • 51 posts • last post on April 30, 2017 • Link to Post #16

How Much Is Your College-Basketball Team Worth? – The Wall Street Journal - March 30, 2017

Rank - Team • 2016 Valuation • 2015 Valuation • % Change

21 - Dayton • $88,415,000 • $80,594,000 • +9.70%
28 - Marquette • $71,918,000 • $59,623,000 • +20.60%
29 - Xavier • $70,562,000 • $78,084,000 • -9.60%
38 - Connecticut • $57,962,000 • $137,895,000 • -58.00%
47 - Villanova • $50,534,000 • $40,445,000 • +24.90%

52 - Georgetown • $47,910,000 • $42,157,000 • +13.60%
55 - St. John's • $45,213,000 • $55,036,000 • -17.80%
73 - Providence • $31,734,000 • $29,656,000 • +7.00%
74 - Creighton • $31,619,000 • $28,084,000 • +12.60%
81 - Saint Louis • $28,094,000 • $18,570,000 • +51.30%
82 - DePaul • $27,210,000 • $42,911,000 • -36.60%
85 - Seton Hall • $25,715,000 • $27,689,000 • -7.10%
92 - Butler • $22,588,000 • $20,240,000 • +11.60%

AD Revenues ('18-'19) – HLOH thread - GoldenWarrior11 - March 31, 2020

How Much Is Your College-Basketball Team Worth? - Andrew Beaton, The Wall Street Journal - April 8, 2019

RANK SCHOOL ... 2018 VALUATION ... 1-YR VALUE CHANGE

18. University of Dayton .... $100,010,000 ... 18.40%
26. Marquette University ..... $72,400,000 .... 4.50%
28. Villanova University ....... $71,080,000 ... 64.90%
38. Xavier University .......... $61,870,000 ..... 3.30%
50. Georgetown University ... $50,270,000 ... -13.90%
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Survey Year • Institution Name • Total Revenue from Men's Basketball

2018 • Marquette University • $21,856,683
2018 • University of Dayton • $16,281,364
2018 • Villanova University • $14,428,932
2018 • Xavier University • $13,916,975
2018 • Georgetown University • $13,573,946
2018 • Providence College • $11,117,186
2018 • St. John's University • $10,028,677

2018 • University of Connecticut • $9,325,922
2018 • Creighton University • $8,590,055
2018 • Butler University • $8,228,482
2018 • Seton Hall University • $7,506,127
2018 • DePaul University • $6,793,520

[adoraz]

Ram fans: I don't think there are numbers available online to prove this given that ratings information isn't easy to find and directly compare. That said, let's consider the following involving the networks (who do have access to these numbers):

1. Villanova, UConn and Georgetown tend to be the teams that Fox and CBS feature the most (despite Georgetown being mediocre)
2. The Big East's TV contract is worth significantly worth more than the A10's (multiple times?)
3. During the Big East's expansion 8 years ago they did not take those 3 teams
4. Those 3 teams, with the likely exception of Dayton, I don't believe have raised their profiles since the Big East last excluded them

I'm not saying that a UConn is worth 10X that of a Dayton, but I absolutely think they're worth perhaps 3-5X as much (especially when you consider their women's hoops, which the networks feature some games for).

Overall that's what I'm getting at. UConn was a great add because they will increase our per-team payout. Those other 3 won't. I just can't see Fox advertising on football Sunday to watch the Big East double header between St. Louis vs Dayton followed by VCU vs Providence or whatever. People would be confused as to why those random, seemingly uneventful, matchups were being listed. Headline with Nova, UConn or GTown? Night and day. Sure, a lot of that has to do with how those teams have performed on the court (currently and/or historically), but VCU, Dayton and St. Louis have had their chance and haven't elevated their programs enough. Close to zero casual viewers are tuning in for those teams, and they'd also be much more likely to get current viewers to change the channel (such as during the second half of a B1G - BE double header).

I understand those 3 A10 teams have strong fan bases with local interest. I just don't see them having much national interest. Certainly not enough to increase our per-team payout, otherwise they'd already be in our league.