Conference Realignment: What Next?

[Xudash]

Gonzaga is a fascinating case. Just the ability and/or luck to retain one coach for such a long time for stability and continuity is a thing of its own. That in and of itself typically ends up being the trigger point on opinions as to whether Gonzaga would be worth it long term. There are two sides to that argument:

1. When Few leaves, then Gonzaga could easily fall off a cliff; and

2. Gonzaga has such a rep that it should be able to transition to more success under the next coach, obviously assuming they pick the right guy.

Mark Few is 61 years old. What is his energy level? What is his general disposition towards working? How is he dealing with the new world order of NIL and the portal? I could see him being gone within 5 years.

Frankly, it's going to be about picking the right guy - that's obviously true for every program - but especially for Gonzaga if they remain in the WCC. Look at what happened to Nova after Jay Wright said "that's it." And that's Villanova - 2 NCs under Jay, the Big East, Philadelphia, etc. If Gonzaga gets it wrong after Mark Few and they're still stuck in a remote mid-major conference, then watch out. The WCC and Spokane offer very little comparatively speaking.

I have to believe that the leadership at Gonzaga has already commissioned a deep dive into what it would mean and look like to operate as a member of the BE. I have to believe that analysis says "GO!" and as soon as possible. The Big East has to have already looked at it from our end. I believe very quiet meetings have taken place between Val and FOX about what it would mean to onboard the Zags. The Big XII option has sailed on them. It's stay home or move to the Big East for Gonzaga, as I see it.

I agree with those who take the position that the Big East is solid with the 11 members we have now. I hope that any material dismantling of the ACC would not lather up Stupid UCONN II - "hey, let's go join the ACC after FSU, Clemson, Miami and UNC check out so that we can save our football team." The 11 members we presently have and the round robin are solid.

However, if we can add strength and if adding strength means goosing the media agreement even more per school, then I can't see how the Big East wouldn't pull the trigger on Gonzaga.

If the Big East doesn't pull the trigger on Gonzaga, it could be because it's watching developments with the ACC. UNC's AD submitted an athletic department budget that reflects a $17 million deficit for this upcoming year, and UNC's cumulative athletic budget deficit is said to be $100 million. UNC sees its $40mm per year from the ACC media deal as being boat raced by the B1G and SEC's $70'ish million per school per year. They are not in a sustainably competitive position.

The Big East has to get through this next media deal successfully either way. We'll get to see what that means with respect to staying at 11 or adding some interesting names.

My feeling is that any expansion of the Big East will come from Gonzaga or a program like Syracuse (I type this knowing that football is very important to Syracuse). I truly believe that expansion will not come from the mid-major ranks, if it takes place at all.

[gtmoBlue]

Hey fellas, Hey 'Dash...

Good points Dash, but I believe the Zags to da BEast ship has also sailed. Yes we are good at 11...

However, The recent flurry of ACC activities suggest that my "ACC Implosion of 2024-25" theory is on schedule.

I submit, again, that the leftovers will be scurrying like crabs in a barrel to find new homes. None of the upper tier of leftover schools will be inspired to remain with BC, Wake, CalStan, SMU, GT, AND a slew of new midmajors from the AAC/CUSA/A10. The ACC's TV/Media Rights will plummet with the top tier footballers abandoning ship. Probably down to AAC OR C-USA levels.

Again, I submit that ND (Indy football still), Duke, and Cheatin' ass S'cuse will bolt to the more fertile confines of the 'new' BEast. Duke, S'Cuse, perhaps Pitt/GT/Wake football is not a relevant factor.. Top level Hoops competition in the great/secure Big East, #4 league nationally, more NCAA bids, and with better TV revenues 8-12 Million/yr vs 5-8 Million with the midmajor add ons. Moving to the BEast becomes a no-brainer. If UC_nt (add any vowel) bolts to the weakened ACC (under some misperception of increased prestige, money, clout) let'em go. Just add another of the leftovers (Pitt/GT or Wake, WF is a private school at least.) to get to 14. If 16 becomes the target goal, then add 2 of Carlton (Ottawa,CAN), Holy Cross, or St. Bonnies (Hey JP Smack, my man!) to reach that level.

Football rules the roost. Some/a few online talkin' heads mistakenly/naively/stupidly think that Duke basketball will be paired/coupled with UNC or NCST to whichever new home they flee to (B1G/SEC/poss B12). Nawwww, ain't gonna happen! Duke football doesn't move any needles and which conference would be stupid enough to pay Duke $50+ to $70+ MILLION dollars just to get Duke basketball (which is valued at $6-8 Million roughly)? HUH?? NADA fellas, NADA. Not gonna happen - it's a pipe dream...

The Big Leagues would shun Cal/Stan, OreSt U, WSU, SMU...but would accept lil' Duke, with it's ancient, 40K Wade Stadium...or even S'cuse football instead??? Make it make sense?

Just sayin', ol' gitmo

[GoldenWarrior11]

I believe that Florida State and Clemson announce they are leaving the ACC either later this summer or by next summer. A settlement will be reached where they will pay a fair price to leave the ACC early, which will be more than made up by the glorious TV revenues by jumping to either the B1G or SEC (I think it will be the latter). Between the new exits fees that will be distributed to the ACC membership, SMU taking no revenues for nine years, and California and Stanford taking heavy discounts (giving more money to current members), the revenues will keep all current ACC members (specifically, UNC) financially intact through the end of the ACC TV deal in the 2030s, and not seeking an immediate exit. It buys them time, not unlike what UConn did by staying in the AAC and using the war chest funds created by the departing Big East members to artificially keep their revenues at pace as when they were in the Big East. However, come the early 2030's, the Big Ten will need to add several ACC members to fill up the national viewership windows it will soon occupy between Fox, CBS, NBC/Peacock and FS1. At that point, I see it shaking down something like this:

1) FSU and Clemson to the SEC (full shares). 18 total.
2) North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Miami, California and Stanford to the B1G (with Notre Dame as an affiliate non-football member). 24 total.
3. North Carolina State and Virginia Tech to the SEC. 20 total. NCST and VT would, much later, earn partial shares, and slightly elevate the payouts for the remainder of the conference (SEC gaining access to North Carolina and Virginia with much better SEC-fit institutions are also a win/win).

With ACC destabilized, Yormark will once again pursue his eastern wing elevated with basketball. Louisville, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, UConn, Boston College, USF and Memphis could get the Allstate 16 to 24; however, I think that is way too many mouths to feed for what it is likely to receive on the market between Fox and ESPN. I don't see the Allstate 12 growing to that size unless it increases the payouts for all of the members. While 24 is too big, I could see 18, maybe 20 (so either 2 or 4 schools). In that regard, I would rank Louisville and Georgia Tech as the top-2 selections, with Pittsburgh #3 and, perhaps a hot take, USF as a #4 (as another Florida market to pair with UCF, and its growth potential is vastly superior to Syracuse). If the SEC doesn't see the value with adding a NCST and VT on partial shares (which I could very much also see), then they jump to top of the list with Louisville and Georgia Tech, and really cut out the remaining schools.

So, let's say the ACC is down to Boston College, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest and SMU. The options are limited in terms of rebuilding the conference to anything resembling the value that it previously had, and now being paired with SMU creates a geographical challenge. Schools like Memphis, East Carolina and Tulane may be considered, but (w/ ECU and Tulane), it harms the basketball side of things. With no new TV deal in sight, BC, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Wake accept invitations to join the Big East as non-football members. A program like UD or SLU could be added if they wanted a nice round number of 16, but it wouldn't be Gonzaga. The ACC could continue as a football-only alliance (w/ UConn), and the Big East returns to its non-football (with football schools) arrangement.

Phew. That's a lot.

[Xudash]

It may be a lot, but it's damn well thought out.

When the Big East blew up the last time over football, it certainly didn't have alignment between its hoops schools and football schools. Media packages were bundled up, in terms of football and basketball "values" being co-mingled.

Yormark certainly has the potential for being a pain in our side, but he's on to something in terms of working towards monetizing basketball on a standalone basis. What if basketball and football schools can co-exist in a lucrative basketball conference? Structure the Operating Agreement equitably (i.e. equal voting, distributions, etc.). Have clarity around the media agreement(s) so that conference members understand that each member brings something to the table and that basketball is JOB ONE when it comes to the Big East.

BTW, my FSU friends who have some connections in Tallahassee are hopeful that they can exit stage left this summer, and they believe they're headed to the B1G. Florida, in particular, but Georgia and Bama aren't exactly keen on letting them into the SEC. Who knows. Get the popcorn ready.

gitmo, I see your point about Gonzaga. It certainly has the potential for moving forward effectively, even if that means remaining in the WCC, but I wouldn't trade places with the Zags right now under any circumstance.

[GoldenWarrior11]

It may be a lot, but it's damn well thought out.

When the Big East blew up the last time over football, it certainly didn't have alignment between its hoops schools and football schools. Media packages were bundled up, in terms of football and basketball "values" being co-mingled.

Yormark certainly has the potential for being a pain in our side, but he's on to something in terms of working towards monetizing basketball on a standalone basis. What if basketball and football schools can co-exist in a lucrative basketball conference? Structure the Operating Agreement equitably (i.e. equal voting, distributions, etc.). Have clarity around the media agreement(s) so that conference members understand that each member brings something to the table and that basketball is JOB ONE when it comes to the Big East.

BTW, my FSU friends who have some connections in Tallahassee are hopeful that they can exit stage left this summer, and they believe they're headed to the B1G. Florida, in particular, but Georgia and Bama aren't exactly keen on letting them into the SEC. Who knows. Get the popcorn ready.

gitmo, I see your point about Gonzaga. It certainly has the potential for moving forward effectively, even if that means remaining in the WCC, but I wouldn't trade places with the Zags right now under any circumstance.

I think FSU prefers the B1G, strictly speaking on whether it wants to be the #2 FL school in a power conference, surrounded by regional programs that it can be outmaneuvered by versus being the #1 FL in a national conference. I think FOX wants them (and is willing to pay them full price). However, ESPN (and SEC) cannot let that happen. It infringes on their territory, brand exclusivity and also hurts their ACC deal (which is sweet for them, since it is pennies on the dollar through 2036). It could very easily slide over FSU and Clemson to the SEC (give them more $$$ than in the ACC, and slightly increasing the shares to current members), while also enforcing a negotiated settlement that gives the remaining ACC members even more of a payout bump through the next several years. UNC, IMO, doesn't want to leave (or especially destroy) the ACC. However, it is inevitable that it will be raided at some point; the market will dictate that.

From a historical and regional perspective, I think it remains likely that we will eventually see programs like Syracuse, Pittsburgh and Boston College back in the Big East; unfortunately, it will be out of circumstance and not preference, but its not totally unlike UConn making the decision to reluctantly return when their hand was forced (from a financial perspective).

[DeltaV]

I'm going to go against the grain and say my gut says the days of adding to conferences, especially the top tier, for the sake of adding schools might be past. How many slots do they really need to fill? How much do they really want to share with schools like NC State, who I see mentioned?

Yes, I think Clemson and FSU getting poached is inevitable. UNC as well, maybe Virginia. But this isn't 10 years ago when you needed to get your conference cable channel in as many households as you could, even if 80% of them never tune in the channel except when the cat accidentally steps on the remote. Hell, however many years it's been, I bet you could still tell people that Rutgers was in the Big ten and they wouldn't believe you.

Brand name, relevant matchups will rule the streaming world, especially when you can get whatever you want with a click. No one is going to want to watch a Memphis BC anything, or Georgia Tech Syracuse. You'll get more alumni tuning in to watch Wake Forest v Duke than either of the above, because that's a game that matters to people. That's why Big East has had success staying at 11, and why they welcomed UConn back: because we care about those games a lot more than a throwaway game vs. Saint Louis on a Tuesday night.

With that, I think enough teams stay in the ACC that it stays intact. It's no longer a top tier conference (it'll be Power 3 probably before we start a new realignment thread), but it'll be like us but with football, which is why Syracuse, Pitt etc will remain, because it'll still have more relevant football matchups than going independent and playing Youngstown State.

[Burrito]

I only see three schools from the ACC being P2 worthy (FSU, UNC and Clemson). The conference just invited three new members (Stamford, Cal & SMU) so they have already been replaced.
Assuming that happens, the ACC would remain at 14 full members and Partial member Notre Dame.

At that point the ACC could add members. Top choices include:
1) USF (to replace FSU in Florida)
2) Oregon State (as another west coast team to partner with Stamford & Cal)
3) UConn

So the ACC could remain stable but would be considered a pretty weak football conference going forward.

[Vertigo]

I'm in the camp that thinks FSU is B1G bound. I think ESPN/FSU have bad-blood running after the Playoff snub with the ongoing heated court battle. B1G Prediction - FSU and Clemson shock everyone and jump into bed with FOX/B1G and truly become the best and most lucrative athletic sports conference.

like someone said above, the ACC already grabbed their replacements with Stanford/Cal/SMU. Although I do believe the ACC will want to stay in the Florida market by scooping up USF and pairing them with either Cincinnati, WVU, UConn, OSU, or WSU.(before you dismiss me on poaching the B12, i believe the ACC can easily sell them on better academic peers and shorter travel. ACC Prediction - After FSU and Clemson bolt, UNC/Virginia/NCST/Kansas head to the SEC. ACC then adds USF and UConn.

SEC gets three brand new markets with incredible basketball history with above average football. SEC Prediction - the conference stays pat at 20, same as the B1G. the SEC and B1G then join forces and start a Premiere CFB league in 3-5 years, with ND being invited to participate.

B12 in this scenario loses Kansas so the B12 decides to try and wiggle some ACC programs unsuccessfully, then Yormark gets really desperate and adds Memphis, Oregon St, and WSU just to stay viable.

for the BEast - confrence adds Dayton to replace UConn and calls it a day. done

[Django]

Vértigo you just committed the cardinal sin of realignment. “Thou Shalt Not Make Sense.” 10 Hail Marys and an Our Father for you lad.

[GoldenWarrior11]

I only see three schools from the ACC being P2 worthy (FSU, UNC and Clemson). The conference just invited three new members (Stamford, Cal & SMU) so they have already been replaced.
Assuming that happens, the ACC would remain at 14 full members and Partial member Notre Dame.

At that point the ACC could add members. Top choices include:
1) USF (to replace FSU in Florida)
2) Oregon State (as another west coast team to partner with Stamford & Cal)
3) UConn

So the ACC could remain stable but would be considered a pretty weak football conference going forward.

It depends on who is seeking them. Those three are universally sought by both the B1G and SEC as 1) Florida is a large enough market to want either more or new exposure in the area (SEC can certainly use another program for additional games in FL and the B1G desires FL market), 2) Clemson is a top-15 football brand and would increase the value of brand and viewership and 3) neither has North Carolina within its footprint. Now, take Duke as an example. By themselves, they undoubtedly don't move the needle for either conference; however, their basketball program is top-5 in brand in the country and pairing them either with UNC or others does the job. Georgia Tech is not valuable to the SEC because it already has Georgia, but if the B1G gets several ACC properties, FOX would love nothing more than to now have the Atlanta market (paired potentially with Florida State and possibly Miami) to have additional Southern exposure) and the B1G would love their AAU affiliation as well.

If the ACC wasn't bound by the GOR and all 18 members were free agents today, I think we'd see more than half of the schools flip (either to the B1G, SEC or Big 12). That is essentially what is coming down the road.